Unlucky Number Seven
Unlucky Number Seven
If you read my previous article it admittedly would not have been worth your time, as it was the quickest of setups for week seven of the Premier League season and now that one is in the history books, it is time to see how we fared in terms of gut instinct football predictions.
A raft of predictions that will thankfully be the last week of pure picking of will, as from Friday we move into the world of data driven football predictions. Before we do though, lets take stock of how I fared last weekend:
Wolves – Y
Manchester City – Y
Chelsea – Y
Liverpool – Y
Aston Villa/Southampton Draw – N
Everton – N
Arsenal – Y
Tottenham – Y
Fulham – Y
Leeds/Leicester Draw – N
A very respectable 7 out of 10, so a pat on the back for me and had I not opted for any draws, that could have been a far sight higher. However, it is what it is and with a further ado, lets see how social media fared by comparison:
While here is what Social Media opted for instead:
Wolves – Y
Manchester City – Y
Chelsea – Y
Liverpool – Y
Aston Villa/Southampton Draw – N
Everton – N
Manchester United/Arsenal Draw – N
Tottenham – Y
Fulham/West Brom Draw – N
Leeds – N
Only 5 out of 10 by comparison, which means my predictive prowess came out on top last weekend and when compared to the bookmakers odds at the start of the weekend, lets also see how they fared:
| 02 Nov 2020 | 1 | X | 2 | B’s | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | Leeds – Leicester | 1:4 | 2.43 | 3.64 | 2.85 | 13 |
| 16:30 | Fulham – West Brom | 2:0 | 2.44 | 3.29 | 3.10 | 13 |
| 01 Nov 2020 | 1 | X | 2 | B’s | ||
| 18:15 | Tottenham – Brighton | 2:1 | 1.59 | 4.29 | 5.80 | 13 |
| 15:30 | Manchester Utd – Arsenal | 0:1 | 2.00 | 3.62 | 3.91 | 13 |
| 13:00 | Newcastle – Everton | 2:1 | 3.38 | 3.36 | 2.28 | 13 |
| 11:00 | Aston Villa – Southampton | 3:4 | 2.59 | 3.57 | 2.72 | 13 |
| 31 Oct 2020 | 1 | X | 2 | B’s | ||
| 16:30 | Liverpool – West Ham | 2:1 | 1.43 | 5.20 | 7.07 | 13 |
| 14:00 | Burnley – Chelsea | 0:3 | 5.65 | 4.26 | 1.60 | 13 |
| 11:30 | Sheffield Utd – Manchester City | 0:1 | 10.68 | 6.06 | 1.29 | 13 |
The bookmakers also picked 5 out of 10, so they fared the same as social media
Which means the league table looks as follows:
Gut Instinct – 55.8% correct (38/68)
Social Media – 51.4% correct (35/68)
Bookmakers – 47.0% correct (32/68 wins only)
So after the first seven weeks of the season, my predictive powers are slightly above average, while they are also better than Social Media and also better than the bookmakers, albeit they have a substantial handicap.
However, it is interesting to see just how wide of the mark the bookies have been as of late and this just taps into how interesting a season it has been thus far, which means the potential for upsets has been larger than usual.
It does also suggest that we should not necessarily be opting for the favourite all the time and when we start using predictive modelling, it will certainly be interesting to see what picks come up compared to what the bookies say.
In the next article I am going to take stock of what has happened thus far and what kind of profit could be made from individual line betting, so stay on board for that one.
Happy punting and thanks for reading.
(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)