Trimming The Edges
Trimming The Edges
In my previous article, I looked at whether data driven betting is a better approach when compared to pure gut instinct and although there was something of a deadlock, I now am going to test my methods as another weekend of English Premier League action is just minutes away.
Yes, like many others the Friday night action has caught me on the hop and that means I better act fast if I am going to get my data sorted before events kick off at Carrow Road between Norwich and Leicester.
With the Carabao Cup Final taking place this Sunday, it means the Premier League schedule is slightly curtailed and that means, there are just eight games to work with this time around and it is a list that looks as follows:
BUILDING THE MOMENTUM
The past two attempts at this have seen me record 6 correct data driven football predictions out of 10 and that for even the smallest maths fan has meant a success rate of 60% across that period. However, with less games I have to do slightly less to record that same level this weekend,.
Not only that, but after testing ‘PremBot’ on 120 matches, I’ve returned a successful outcome in 58 of them, meaning that I am just under 50% in terms of success for the whole project and there is certainly room to do better.
With that said, this whole season has to be nothing more than a control measure for the 2020/21 campaign and all the findings I can take from this, I can then use from August and beyond to see if any improvements and/or new knowledge can be found.
Due to the fact, that I’ve managed to return 6 out of 10 in the last two gameweeks, I’ve not done any tinkering under the bonnet, although whether this causes more problems than solutions we will have to wait and see.
A STRIKER CRISIS
For example, let’s take a look at my beloved Tottenham. You only need to look at the fact that they are without both Harry Kane and Hueng min-Son at present and this is something that ‘PremBot’ is not aware of.
With that in mind, it is looking purely at data and not the teamnews which means my predictive model is not reactive enough and although Tottenham have been marked down as a win, my gut instinct says otherwise.
While another example could be Burnley away at Newcastle. The Clarets may have earned 13 points from the last 15 on offer and because of that they are the team with the second best form behind runaway leaders Liverpool.
However, their away from over the last six away matches does not stand up to Newcastle’s last six home. But therein lies the problem, should Burnley’s incredible recent form both home and away override this?
Logically you would say yes, but then would go against the structure of the model – so again it perhaps suggest the model is too rigid in it’s current guise and therefore needs some additional rules built into it
They look like being the two biggest red flags for me this weekend, so we will have to see if they become a factor or not on the other end of it. If I can get 6 out of 8 this weekend, I’ll be back to a 50/50 success rate, so that is the target. Fingers crossed that is the case.
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at email@example.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
Follow me on Facebook at Dan The Stat Man
You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud