Three Quarters Full

Three Quarters Full

Three Quarters Full

Firstly Happy New Year and I hope everyone has a succesful 2020 in terms of betting. Apologies for the delay in content, but you must understand that with so much football over Christmas, it was going to be nigh on impossible to update my data driven articles and have some form of break.

Anyway with the apologies out of the way, it is time to get back into business and that business is a review of how I did when I last offered up a range of over 2.5 goals Premier League predictions. So without further ado, let’s cast our minds back to the weekend of December 22nd/23rd.


Previous to this particular gameweek in question, the rate of success was at 77.7% (22 recommended bets correct from 27) and with that in mind, here was the batch of nine matches that were on the line.

Three Quarters Full

Usually, there are matches that do not full into the recommended criteria for either Over or Under 2.5. However all nine games in this particular gameweek did and that meant either more to win or more to lose.

So how did it pan out – well I returned five out of nine recommended bets, therefore not the most exhilarating of weeks but at the same time, it has done little to hamper the overall percentage success rate.


Aston Villa vs Southampton
Manchester City vs Leicester
Watford vs Manchester United
Brighton vs Sheffield United
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace


Tottenham vs Chelsea
Bournemouth vs Burnley
Everton vs Arsenal
Norwich vs Wolves

That’s because I have now recommended 36 bets in terms of either Over/Under 2.5 goals and 27 have been correct. Which when doing a quick bit of maths, is a 75% hit rate. Not bad, not bad at all and the thing you have to remember is that this is all derived from probability.


This is a question that someone asked me the other day and admittedly you would have no problems in just running through the list and picking over/under where required. Then again, where is the fun in that.

One way to look at this, is perhaps running with someone else in tandem and they go with gut feel, whereas I test my recommended bets via the medium of probability. That way, we can really test gut instinct versus a data driven betting approach.

If you’d like to test this theory, then please do get in touch with me and I will build this into tomorrow’s predictions. That way, we can see whether data or perceived knowledge really is king.

With a 75% success rate, there is certainly something working at the moment. Although that does need to be tempered by the fact that the sample size is still quite small and if ‘GoalBot’ recommended 100 bets with that level of return, then we’d be onto something special.

The only way we are going to get there, is by continuing to test the probability model and that is exactly what I’ll be doing over the next few days. While with Sheffield United and West Ham kicking off this evening, I best get a move on.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud

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