The Winners Enclosure
The Winners Enclosure
If you read my previous article on Premier League goal probability, you will know that I’ve been testing out predictions on the Over 2.5 goals market and without blowing my own horn, this data driven betting approach has delivered a fair amount of initial success.
Not only that, but this isn’t down to predictive modelling or gut-instinct, I am simply using probability as a guideline and from there throwing out recommended tips and of those recommended tips, 92.3% of them have been correct (both Over/Under 2.5 goals)
This has meant across Weeks 14 and 15, twelve out of my thirteen recommended tips were correct and brings us nicely onto reviewing what happened over the course of the extended weekend. With that in mind, let’s take a quick recap at what was on offer.
THE RATE OF SUCCESS
Incredibly all of their Over predictions got over the line as there was a flurry of goals in the English Premier League last week and unfortunately that flurry continued to Sunday as there was a bit too much activity at both The AMEX and Carrow Road.
However, a 7 out of 9 recommended picks being correct is not to be sniffed at (and for the gameweek itself it was actually 8 out of 10 correct, due to Arsenal winning 3-1 away at West Ham) and that means the success percentage stays at an impressively high result.
That means after three weeks of testing (22 matches) 86.3% of the recommended tips have been correct and remember all I’m working off of is probability, using the previous outcomes of the season as a guide to the week.
While although we didn’t get a clean sweep, you don’t necessarily need to back them all to win and that has certainly be the case for some people in Social Media land, as they used the information provided to return some weekend winners.
Let’s take a look now at the winners enclosure:
Three certified winners and proof that the system is working (roughly £140 in winnings), even in it’s early stages and if you were to go to someone like Bet Dynamo or Andy’s Bet Club, you would probably be paying for the privilege of getting the same algorithm results.
Which makes me ponder the question, why pay for a tips membership when you can work out the answer for yourself and because I’m a nice guy (supposedly), I’ll have another raft of recommended bets for you at the weekend.
In addition to that, I am going to look to scale this up across Both Teams To Score and also Over 2.5 for all other major European leagues, I just need to work out the best way in which to show the data each week – is a blog format correct? Do people like the personal/explanation touch?
I’m a big fan of feedback as ultimately I’d like to build models/recommendations that will actually be of use to people, so please do not hesitate to get in touch below or via the social mediums were this article is posted. Let’s hope for more winners at the weekend!
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at [email protected]. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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