The Project Ends

The Project Ends

If you read my previous article in regard to the Russian Premier League you will know that we entered the final week of the project and it is was a project where the difference between overall profit and loss hung in the balance. Quite simply, this is where the project ends.

That’s because week 8 (the weekend before this) was one that saw almost all the previous profit wiped out and at times like that you can only think to yourself “what has been the point in doing all of this?”

However, one should never be undeterred by a bad week at the predictive office and although I may have had just as much luck by picking blind in the final week of the project, it was time to warm up ‘StatBot’ one last time.

Therefore, before how I reveal how everything ended, let’s take a look at the final raft of predictions from ‘StatBot’

THE MOMENT OF TRUTH

Ok to set the scene, it is as follows. After eight weeks of betting, it has seen 64 matches staked at an overall expenditure of £32 and when all those collective full time whistles have blown, ‘StatBot’ has returned £32.14.

Admittedly that is not going to ease me in retirement, but it’s still a small win after week 8. Although it’s what happens after week 9, which is the most important factor and after another 8 unit expenditure (£4), I would need to bring home £3.86 to finish the project on an absolute break even of £36.

Although, I don’t want to just break even after all this toil, I may as well have just left the money in the bank and not started at all. But now we know what the eight predictions from ‘StatBot’ were, let’s see how I fared:

THE RESULTS – CORRECT OUTCOMES IN ITALICS

Zenit 3-0 Dinamo Moscow
Arsenal Tula 4-0 Lokomotiv Moscow
FC Tambov 3-0 FC Orenburg
FC Krasnodar 1-1 CSKA Moscow
FK Akhmat 0-1 FC Ufa
Kryla Sovetov 2-3 Ural
PFC Sochi 1-1 Rubin Kazan
Spartak Moscow 1-4 FC Rostov

If you were looking at the first five fixtures alone, that would not make for good reading whatsoever. However, Sunday’s showing was a lot better and it meant that four out of the eight predictions from ‘StatBot’ got over the line, which is about the norm in any given gameweek.

Although when it comes to trying to make a profit, a lot of it comes down to quality of predictions and not just quantity. Ultimately, the only way this is going to work, is by trying to hunt the games that offer the most value.

Now we know, that four predictions were correct, let’s reveal what each of them paid out in winnings:

Zenit 3-0 Dinamo Moscow – 0.77
Kryla Sovetov 2-3 Ural – 1.80
PFC Sochi 1-1 Rubin Kazan – 1.55
Spartak Moscow 1-4 FC Rostov – 1.80

Total Winnings: 5.92

CELEBRATE GOOD TIMES

Therefore, if you are skimming to the good bits or you have a really short memory, you will know that I needed 3.86 for project break even. However, with 5.92 in the bank this weekend, it means the ‘StatBot’ Russian project has been a profitable success!

From £36 expenditure, I have returned £38.06 and that works out as a 5.72% ROI. In layman terms, if you had spent £100, it would have returned £105.72 – a better interest rate than all major high street bank accounts.

Admittedly this has come with far greater risk, but as they say with risk does equal reward and I would like to say that it has been a lot of fun along the way, especially as it has ended on a profitable high note.

Not only that but the level of success this week, must also be highlighted. This week saw a 48% ROI and this is down to three outside bets coming good on Sunday, the day which quite simply turned the complexion of the whole project.

Two away wins for Ural and Rostov which were not the favourite outcomes with Betfair and a draw between Sochi and Rubin Kazan – remember that draws are never short odds, unless it’s an Italian end of season game, all crossed the line and swelled the coffers nicely.

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

If I was being hyper-critical, I would say that some of this was down to luck but at the same time that would be doing myself a disservice and without doubt, it has been the correct prediction of draws which has seen the most success.

Which then makes me think, should I try again once the season restarts in March and not bet on every game each week?. Why not for example, bet only on draws and raise the stakes every so slightly.

This would mean, betting on a maximum of four games a week and then placing a 2 unit stake (£1) per game. Not only that, but the odds of these draws would be be more than 2.0 and this would increase my chances of overall profit.

This idea certainly has more credence when you look at the payout from Zenit’s home win, a ‘huge’ 27p profit was returned.and when you look at it like that, you do wonder if the risk mentioned above is even worth the reward.

At the same time, I have learned that this league is an incredibly volatile one and my data driven betting approach is one that still needs to be somewhat refined. However, a profit after nine weeks is something to celebrate and I will certainly be doing that in the days and weeks to come.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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