The Probability Factor
The Probability Factor
Last week I announced that business had been scaled up and that meant that the major European Leagues had been included in my weekly analysis, something that opens up new levels of data driven betting.
While it is data that is the order of then morning once again, as I have another whole batch of European Over 2.5 goal probability for you to mull over and this time it includes France’s Ligue 1 as well.
Therefore without a further ado, here are the 39 games in the list (apologies if the Friday night games are still in there, full dislosure it is too much hassle to remove them)
| Home | Away | Over 2.5 |
| Ein Frankfurt | RB Leipzig | 80.56% |
| Bayern Munich | Schalke 04 | 75.00% |
| Dortmund | FC Koln | 75.00% |
| Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim | 72.22% |
| M’gladbach | Mainz | 72.22% |
| Torino | Atalanta | 70.00% |
| Roma | Lazio | 69.47% |
| Freiburg | Paderborn | 66.67% |
| Sampdoria | Sassuolo | 65.00% |
| Inter | Cagliari | 62.50% |
| Fiorentina | Genoa | 62.50% |
| Union Berlin | Augsburg | 61.11% |
| Leverkusen | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 61.11% |
| Napoli | Juventus | 60.00% |
| Lyon | Toulouse | 57.50% |
| Valencia | Barcelona | 57.50% |
| Alaves | Villarreal | 57.50% |
| Monaco | Strasbourg | 57.50% |
| Sociedad | Mallorca | 57.50% |
| Brescia | Milan | 55.00% |
| Brest | Amiens | 55.00% |
| Lille | Paris SG | 55.00% |
| Wolfsburg | Hertha | 52.78% |
| Getafe | Betis | 52.50% |
| Spal | Bologna | 52.50% |
| Nice | Rennes | 52.50% |
| Osasuna | Levante | 52.50% |
| St Etienne | Nimes | 50.00% |
| Verona | Lecce | 48.42% |
| Parma | Udinese | 47.50% |
| Marseille | Angers | 45.00% |
| Celta | Eibar | 42.50% |
| Montpellier | Dijon | 42.50% |
| Valladolid | Real Madrid | 37.50% |
| Nantes | Bordeaux | 37.50% |
| Espanol | Ath Bilbao | 35.00% |
| Sevilla | Granada | 35.00% |
| Ath Madrid | Leganes | 32.50% |
| Reims | Metz | 22.50% |
To make things slightly easier and mobile friendly, I have removed the league and the key required just to make things a little narrower. However, if you are a fan of major European football, then you should have an idea of which teams play in which leagues.
While you might not be aware of the thresholds required for Over/Under and therefore they are as follows:
Over 55% – Bet on Over 2.5
45 – 54.99% -Too Close To Call
Under 45% – Bet on Under 2.5
It does seem as the German Bundesliga is a competition that lends itself to plenty of goals, although you would want to go with a Deutsche heavy accumulator is up to you, while looking at the lower end of the league it looks like less goals are on the French and Spanish menu’s.
While had the list been published last night and you backed Borussia Dortmund vs Koln as Over 2.5, you would have come good – as it ended in a 5-1 victory for the hosts, still we’ve missed that boat, so no point celebrating something that’s already happened.
As before, there is a whole host of information above, so please feel free to use as a probability guide for your Over/Under bets this weekend and if you do back a winner or two, make you send it to the winners enclosure.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at [email protected]. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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