The Final Countdown
The Final Countdown
If you read my previous article on trying to get the better of the Russian Premier League you will be fully aware, that last week saw quite a hefty loss and it was one that nearly wiped all the profit that had been built up from the past seven weeks.
Losing money in projects such as this, is never ideal and especially when it leaves everything hanging in the balance. While just to add one more twist to the tale, the Russian season goes on a huge hiatus at the the end of this weekend and that means I have one more chance to test my luck.
That of course means, that my good friend ‘StatBot’ will be unleashed one last time and before he goes off on a long winter hibernation, let’s first take a look at his final eight data driven betting predictions:
Here they are, the eight picks that are going to define whether this data driven prediction project has been a success or not and after eight weeks of operation, I have bet £32 and made £32.14, not a great deal admittedly but profit is still profit.
Now over the course of those eight weeks, there has been many tweaks to ‘StatBot’ with what must be said are varying degrees of success. However, with this league being so volatile in terms of results, you almost have to wonder whether the changes were necessary,
Has my profit been more a case of pot luck, to a certain degree it has and that is because I’ve managed to sniff out a number of draws along the way, draws that have meant I’ve been able to find some edge against the bookmaker.
While also last weekend was a total bust, it was almost as if sailing too close to the bookmakers was a bad thing and with the 8-fold returning a potential 3328/1, it means that there is certainly some difference of opinion between myself and Betfair.
A difference that if found in my favour, will mean I turn a profit by the end of the weekend and can wrap up this particular project with a win. However, if the results go closer to the actual formbook, ‘StatBot’ will have crashed and burned on his last hurrah.
Even though, last week was a very poor return (2 correct, 1 postponed), I’m not going to make any changes to the model. If only because, I’ve tried to be extra clever and that’s not really worked, therefore we may as well go out in a blaze of glory. Now we just have to wait and see if it pays off….
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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