The Fifth Element

The Fifth Element

If you read my previous article, you will know that the pursuit for data driven betting excellence is one that never ends and with the first international break of the season now thankfully behind us, it is time to once again get down to business.

Business that in a couple of weeks time will result in a weekly raft of data driven predictions. However, before then we are going to have to run out gut instinct alone, if only because there is not quite enough 2020/21 season data for us to dive into.

WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN?

For the untrained reader, it means a test of gut instinct against not only the bookmakers but also social media and in doing so, we can see if:

a) The wisdom of crowds is actually that wise
b) Just how much the bookmakers get it right on a week/season long basis

To aid us in this conquest, there is an ongoing league table and one that after 10% of the Premier League season looks as follows:

Bookmakers – 60.5% correct (23/38)
Gut Instinct – 57.8% correct (22/38)
Social Media – 57.8% correct (22/38)

VERY LITTLE IN IT

There’s arguably no surprise that the bookmakers are currently top of the table, but both Social Media and I can take some solace in the fact that we are just one solitary prediction away from being at the same level.

A pat on the back if nothing else, but now is not the time to rest on our laurels and with that in mind, it is that moment where the weekend’s picks are served up to the world, first up here are my “perfect 10”

Everton/Liverpool Draw
Chelsea
Manchester City
Manchester United
Sheffield United
Crystal Palace/Brighton Draw
Tottenham
Leicester
West Brom/Burnley Draw
Leeds

While if all 10 get over the line, it will convert 1 currency unit to 2,718 – our longest combined fold yet – something that can be accounted for by three draws (the most selected in one go)

Of course, with me and Social Media now level pegging, I need to see what they have served up in return – a list that looks as follows:

Everton
Chelsea
Manchester City/Arsenal Draw
Manchester United
Sheffield United
Crystal Palace/Brighton Draw
Tottenham
Leicester
West Brom/Burnley Draw
Leeds/Wolves Draw

With some slight differences, that makes things interesting and what makes it even more interesting is the fact that if this one gets over the line, 1 currency unit will be convered to 11,090 – I think this might be the longest odds we’ve ever worked with.

To give this some further context, we should take a look at the bookmaker odds and see just how against the grain these two lists of picks actually are:

Tomorrow, 17 Oct			1	X	2	B’s
11:30	Everton – Liverpool		301/100	309/100	17/20	13
14:00	Chelsea – Southampton		27/50	89/25	501/100	13
16:30	Manchester City – Arsenal		13/25	377/100	5/1	13
19:00	Newcastle – Manchester Utd		373/100	78/25	73/100	13
18 Oct 2020			1	X	2	B’s
11:00	Sheffield Utd – Fulham		28/25	59/25	139/50	13
13:00	Crystal Palace – Brighton		89/50	231/100	42/25	13
15:30	Tottenham – West Ham		63/100	319/100	447/100	13
18:15	Leicester – Aston Villa		109/100	66/25	64/25	13
19 Oct 2020			1	X	2	B’s
16:30	West Brom – Burnley		31/20	58/25	193/100	13
19:00	Leeds – Wolves		3/2	119/50	49/25	13

Now as mentioned before, the bookmakers are not going to lean on a draw, so we do have a slight unfair advantage but the only match winner that goes against the grain is the Social Media suggestion that Everton will get the better of Liverpool at Goodison Park.

If we know that the bookmakers get 60% of the win picks correct, it means the two early Sunday and two Monday night matches could be “the swing” matches and go in a different direction, then again we cannot rule out a relative shock alone the way with the Big Six clubs.

The games that I’ve picked as a winner are in total agreement with the bookmakers, its just the draw selections that will be the overall point of contention and this is where I am going to have to outfox those who set the prices above.

Still that will only be found out come the end of the extended weekend and as we move a step closer to lining up the data driven football predictions, it is once again time to test just how strong gut instinct really is.

Happy punting and thanks for reading.

(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)