The Advent Of Betting
The Advent Of Betting
If you read my previous article on trying to conquer the Russian Premier League via a data driven betting method, you will be fully aware that last week I returned the smallest loss possible and after losing a single penny, it is time to now win that back and a lot more.
While of course, I alone cannot do that alone (well I possibly could but it would go against the purpose of this project) and that means I have to rely on my good friend ‘StatBot’ and his weekly raft of predictions. A set that this week, look like this:
In terms of model changes, I have made a slight tweak and removed the margin of error required for a home win. In doing so, it means that league leaders Zenit are now tipped to get the better of Spartak Moscow whereas before it was a draw.
That in itself is not the worst prediction, but when you consider that Zenit are top of the table and have better form in their last six home games, then Spartak (who themselves are sixth) do in their last six away outings, it made sense to give the model a very small tweak.
Not only that but the tweak has not changed any of the remaining seven predictions and if the small element of change worked to get FC Krasnodar over the line last weekend, then why not make more changes to make ‘StatBot’ leaner and more efficient.
That said if ‘StatBot’ is going to turn a profit, he is certainly going to have his work cut out this weekend. That’s because the predictive modelling, is leaning heavily towards the favourites and therefore there is less opportunities to hunt of the value.
That’s not to say there are no opportunities, it just means that a projected five results out of eight are going to be required for a weekly profit to be returned – then again there was always the mega 8-fold that could come good.
Although this also comes with the caveat of the 8-fold this week is only 398/1, which means that my picks are the closest to the bookmakers since the start of the project and this asks the question, are we flying too close to the sun?
If we build a model that only matches the favourites in each game, then the chances of actually returning a profit are even further diminished. Because the odds for each outcome will be less and then the profit projection increases to six correct picks of eight.
While when you are requiring 75% of the matches to a return a profit, there is a case that you may as well shoot for the moon and only put your money on the accumulator instead. Why bet on single lines, to make pennies when you could use more units and win pounds?
Perhaps I’m getting a little ahead of myself, but that is certainly food for thought as we head into December and the opening of advent calendars. As always, let me see what the fallout is at the start of next week and we will then go from there.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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