Swings And Roundabouts

Swings And Roundabouts

If you read my previous article, you will have been aware that I once again set the scene for another punt at data driven betting excellence and after a poor showing last time out, the hope was for some improvement over the course of last weekend.

Admittedly improvement would not have been all that difficult, after returning just two correct data driven football predictions last time out and after such a poor showing, it was time for a more positive swing to occur.

With my hopes set out, its time to take a look at the predictions offered up ‘BundesBot’ and see just how he fared over the course of the extended footballing weekend:

THE MOMENT OF TRUTH

I may not be sitting pretty in terms of financial reward, but at least ‘BundesBot’ has earned himself some redemption as he once again returned an incredible seven out of nine correct predictions and were it not for the draw picks going against me – it would have been the clean sweep.

Just two results away from 585/1 wninner, admittedly that is slightly galling but it does at least show that the previous time in which seven out of nine got over the line, is not a fluke and there is some form of logic here.

THE FAMOUS FIVE

In the previous article, I did mention that I’d be confident in the top five all winning their respective fixtures and that is exactly what happened. Something that when occurs, makes the rest of the weekend a whole lot more easier.

If you were to ask any punter which teams would win this weekend, invariably those picks would be:

Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayer Leverkusen

Which is exactly what the model also managed to pick, so at least there is confirmation that it ‘works’ to a certain degree and it was certainly a good week – which makes me wonder why these lucky sevens have bookended two poor showings.

Ultimately the more seven’s you can get, the more confidence in your model you can have and that way there isn’t really need for fundamental changes, more perhaps small tweaks to finally complete the full set.

This also means that from 36 matches that have been played since the restart – 22 have be correct in terms of data driven football predictions – that’s a strike rate of  61.1% and that makes for much better reading than this time last week.

Admittedly the sample is still a little small to herald overwhelming success and to be honest, there is still an arguement over whether the bets should be placed on each individual game or the current guise of shooting for the moon.

To be honest, there is perhaps scope for both next season, but for now lets just focus on the current project – also if ‘BundesBot’ was returning a really low return rate, you wouldn’t necessarily be in a rush to start placing individual bets as well.

THE STATE OF PLAY:

Week 0 (Control Week): 7/9
Week 1: 4/9
Week 2: 2/9
Week 3: 7/9

Does this mean confidence is key? The only reason I suggest this is that, I’ve not made any changes to the predictive model since its first week and although I came unstuck a couple of times, the others have been much more inline with what I was hoping for.

So what next? It would almost ludicrous to make any changes and if we can return another handsome output this weekend, we know that we are very close to getting this over the line and therefore, I think we will ‘go again’ this weekend.

Admittedly this could be a little harder as two of the top five face each other and it could well be, that we’ve just had an easier run in terms of fixtures in both Weeks 0 and 3, which has allowed us to return some positive results.

Still though for every five predictions that ‘BundesBot’ has made, three are correct. It’s not lifechanging but it does at least suggests that this is a little more powerful than gut instinct or the man on the street.

TAKE A DOUBLE CHANCE

Of course, when it comes to the double chance bets there is always an additional level of investment and if you thought that seven out of nine was good on the standard bets – we were even closer to the promised land in this market.

Now full disclosure, there was a mistake between what I Intended to bet on and what I actually bet on. Here’s the actual list:

Bayer Leverkusen and Draw
Werder Bremen and Draw
Draw and Wolfsburg
Draw and Hertha Berlin
Hoffenheim and Draw
Bayern Munich and Fortuna Duesseldorf (wouldn’t let me go Bayern and Draw)
Borussia Monchengladbach and Draw
Borussia Dortmund and Draw
RB Leipzig and Draw

The game in bold italics, is the one where I mucked up and actually put Union Berlin and Draw. So it should have really been 8 out of 9, I guess thats frustrating but at least it wasn’t 8 others correct and one mistake which cost me a winner, albeit a small one.

This means in three weeks of trying the double chance method – I have offered 27 predictions and 22 have been correct. This works out to be a strike rate of 81.4% – impressive but we are talking about small samples once again.

ONE THING TO REMEMBER

A key thing to remember is that the double chance bets are driven by the ‘BundesBot’ bets – change the latter and the former will also change and if the former is working so well, it adds further weight to the arguement of just leaving things alone.

Of course, resting on your laurels can be a dangerous thing to do, but at the same time I almost need to avoid the temptation to change for changes sake and that is exactly what I’m going to do over the course of the next few days.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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