Setting Your Goals
Setting Your Goals
If you read my previous article on using a data driven approach to get the better of the English Premier League, you will be fully aware that the Over 2.5 Goals market has treated us well over the past few weeks.
With 19 of 22 recommended bets being successful (86.3%) (all single line tips – please feel free to combine into an accumulator, as really that is where the money is made), we are either on a hot streak or we’ve worked out a good system for the rest of the season.
Ideally, this is not just a purple patch and we can celebrate more than we lose over the next few weeks and months. However, the only true way to test this theory, is by ‘GoalBot’ serving up another raft of recommendations and with that in mind, here they are:
WHAT YOU’VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR
Just five on offer this weekend, as the other five matches fall in the middle band and if you are not fully aware of what that means. It suggests that the margin of error is too tight to call and although they may look worth a punt, they are not recommended by yours truly.
With Arsenal and Manchester City nearly at a 75% probability of returning more than 2.5 Goals on Sunday, that bet should look as safe as houses (famous last words) and to be honest if you are feeling brave, you could enhance that one to Over 3.5 instead.
That’s because there is a 56% probability of a goal flurry at the Emirates and although the odds are around 9/10 (admittedly not the best value) it might be worth your consideration – especially if you think their respective defences will have an off day.
There’s also something of an anomaly at the King Power Stadium, as there is a 20% probability that the game between Leicester and Norwich will end up over 4.5 goals. However, the bookmakers must be anticipating this, as the odds are only 9/4 – whereas you would probably want at least 3/1
However, these are just some extra bonus recommendations and these will not be factored into any count when reviewing the results at the start of the week, while if I was going to put my money where my mouth is, I would say:
Arsenal vs Manchester City
Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Crystal Palace vs Brighton
Ultimately, I will continue to test on a percentage success rate basis, so no expenditure for me this week, as the next step for me is to roll this modelling out to other leagues and give the readers more recommendations (so any leagues you want built, please let me know)
Again the recommendations are exactly the same as what you would find with someone like Andy’s Bet Club or Bet Dynamo, all they are doing is using a data driven betting approach but charging you for the privilege.
So instead of asking for money, all I ask is that you tell your friends (also share/retweet content) and if you are fortunate enough to have any winners over the course of the weekend, please feel free to send me your winning slips. That way I can add them to the winners enclosure.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.