Round Three Fight
Round Three Fight
If you read my previous article, you will know that the quest for data driven betting excellence continues once more and with the second week of the 2020/21 Premier League season in the history books, a debrief on performance had been provided.
As per usual, the hunt for correct data driven football predictions is one that is almost neverending and with another round of fixtures approaching on the horizon, it is time for another round of picks from myself and social media.
Of course, for those who are eagle eyed, you know that we are not using data as the driver in the first six weeks of the season and instead we are going for gut instinct instead and after the first 18 matches, he is what the ‘league table’ looks like:
To summarise this:
Bookmakers – 72.2% correct (13/18)
Gut Instinct – 66.6% correct (12/18)
Social Media – 66.6% correct (12/18)
Armed with this knowledge, we know that the gut instinct of me and the combined efforts of social media are not a million miles away from those who actually set the odds, it is time to try our luck once again with another raft of pick.
Here are the picks, which I will hope will lead me to some form of financial riches come the end of this extended weekend:
WHAT NO DRAWS?
Once again, if you ready my previous article, you will be aware that the first 18 Premier League fixtures have been without a draw and although one is looking for a theory to explain it, I can only put it down to statistical quirk.
However, I am going to test this concept to its absolute maximum this weekend, as I myself have not opted for any draws – therefore the run either extends to 28 or I’ve jinxed it and we witness our first draw or draws of the season.
If all of these 10 individual victories, get over the line – it will turn 1 currency unit into 680 instead and If there is one good thing about all these staggered PremierLeague kickoffs, it means if you bet on all the matches in an acca, you can hopefully tick them off one by one on the pathway to victory.
Of course, it is not all about me and I’ve once again used social media to also take their gut instinct and here is what the random sample looks like this time around:
Crystal Palace/Everton Draw
Not all that different, expect for a pair of draws and if this one gets over the line it turns 1 currency unit into 1081 instead. So a little bit longer in terms of odds, but that will be because of the hopeful shared points at both Selhurst Park and Turf Moor
WHAT ARE THE BOOKMAKERS SAYING
|Tomorrow, 26 Sep||1||X||2||B’s|
|11:30||Brighton – Manchester Utd||+404||+282||-135||13|
|14:00||Crystal Palace – Everton||+274||+236||+112||13|
|16:30||West Brom – Chelsea||+723||+405||-256||13|
|19:00||Burnley – Southampton||+229||+227||+134||13|
|27 Sep 2020||1||X||2||B’s|
|11:00||Sheffield Utd – Leeds||+172||+239||+167||13|
|13:00||Tottenham – Newcastle||-208||+355||+601||13|
|15:30||Manchester City – Leicester||-333||+511||+877||13|
|18:00||West Ham – Wolves||+272||+245||+108||13|
|28 Sep 2020||1||X||2||B’s|
|16:45||Fulham – Aston Villa||+192||+229||+152||13|
|19:00||Liverpool – Arsenal||-204||+378||+534|
Happy punting and thanks for reading.
(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)