Reaching Your Goals
Reaching Your Goals
If you read my previous article on the theme of goals, you would be fully aware that I have taken a data driven approach to my betting strategy and thanks for the law of probability, we have a much better of chance of backing a winning outcome.
If you are not aware of what this particular project is all about, the aim to is predict which English Premier League matches will be over or under 2.5 goals and it is fair to say that over the past two weeks, we’ve had a decent amount of success.
Now any gambler worth their salt, will crow about their successes and I am no different, so with a multitude of matches taking place over the past couple of weeks. let’s now reflect on just how I have fared.
Of the six recommended bets (Green and Reds we like, orange avoid) five of these came in – which is an 83.3% hit rate and had David Martin not had such a solid debut showing against Chelsea, it could have been a clean sweep.
While even when we look at the orange results, that you would approach with caution – two of those four were also successful. Therefore the gameweek, there was a 70% success rate, but really we should be measuring the recommended bets percentage only, so 83.3% it is.
In the gameweek just picked, there were seven games up for grabs and all seven recommended picks came in. So after an impressive Week 14, we know that this model is far from beginners luck and especially when 12 out of 13 recommended picks have been correct.
Although it must be noted that not one Premier League game in Week 15 ended in a draw, something that undoubtedly boosted the chances of any o2.5 predictions getting over the line. However, as they say never look a defensively poor gift horse in the mouth.
This means that the success rate is 92.3% since we started the colour coded system, there was a control week when we were working on a staight 50/50 split, but by building in a margin of error (5% each way), it gives us a little insurance.
Ok, so you’ve probably got this far and you are thinking enough off the logic, what about the latest round of picks and without further ado here they are:
As you can see there is plenty to choose from this week, with nine recommended picks and only one game that you would approach with caution, that being the London derby between West Ham and Arsenal on Monday evening.
Ultimately now it’s down to you, as to which of the nine you pick. If I was making a recommendation on my recommendations, I would pick a maximum of five goals and just one under bet from the group, as you don’t want to be relying on too many teams NOT scoring.
Therefore, while I bask in the glory of my efforts from the past two gameweeks, it is time to put my money where my mouth is and if I was selecting from the above, my quintet of goal picks for this weekend would be:
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Manchester City vs Manchester United
Aston Villa vs Leicester
Everton vs Chelsea
Brighton vs Wolves
Of course, please feel free to pick whatever combination you want and more importantly if you do end up backing a winner, please let me know and send in a photo of your slips, as it would be good to build a winners enclosure. Right then, two tickets for the goals please!
.Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.