Premier League Splits
Premier League Splits
If you read my previous article, you will know that the pursuit of data driven betting excellence saw nothing more than a quick data dump across the European leagues, as the English F.A. Cup stole the limelight.
a competition that garners a lot of attention, not only across Europe but in all corners of the world and none more so, than in the United States.
With such a proliferation in coverage over the past few years, the American gambling landscape has changed considerably and with the ability to bet on the Premier League being unlocked in more locations across the country, interest in the competition is only increasing by the week.
A lot of that interest comes with the statistics that are generated by the weekly soap opera that unfolds and these statistics derive the opportunity to place a range of profitable bets over the course of a long-term period.
With this season being a lot more harder to read in terms of eventual outcomes, trying to predict the winner is becoming something of a crapshoot and therefore, a better angle is to look at the goals being scored and when exactly they occur.
SPLIT INTO SEGMENTS
If we take a 90 minute game and split it into eight 15-minute segments (allowing for injury time also), we can get a better idea of just when the goals are crashing against the back of the net and from here, we can identify where to bet.
Let’s take the 2020/21 Premier League data for the season thus far and although we are just under halfway through the season, we should be able to paint a reasonable picture of when the goals are being scored.
While if we put these segments into a table, it looks as follows:
| Minutes | Goals | % Split |
| 0-15 | 69 | 14.87% |
| 16-30 | 76 | 16.38% |
| 31-45 | 69 | 14.87% |
| 45+ | 6 | 1.29% |
| 46-60 | 64 | 13.79% |
| 61-75 | 73 | 15.73% |
| 76-90 | 82 | 17.67% |
| 90+ | 25 | 5.39% |
| Total | 464 | 100.00% |
Now this is in what we can consider list format and will offer some context, although if we put this table in order, it will offer even more:
| Minutes | Goals | % Split |
| 76-90 | 82 | 17.67% |
| 16-30 | 76 | 16.38% |
| 61-75 | 73 | 15.73% |
| 0-15 | 69 | 14.87% |
| 31-45 | 69 | 14.87% |
| 46-60 | 64 | 13.79% |
| 90+ | 25 | 5.39% |
| 45+ | 6 | 1.29% |
| Total | 464 | 100.00% |
Now we can see that the most recurring segment in terms of goals scored is the last 15 minutes of the game (excluding second half injury time), while this is then followed by minutes 16-30 of the first half.
What is interesting here, is that bar the injury time segments that can be considered as the external noise (even if they do have some value of their own), there is no real pattern in terms of goals being scored in the first or second halves.
If you were to suggest a hypothesis that said more goals were scored at the end of the game and then as the segments lessened in time, so did the number of goals scored, in this particular sample would be false.
However, that is not to say that it would be false across the board, as different competitions would derive different splits and most importantly, we are only halfway through this particular season.
Then again, the fact that more goals are scored between minutes 76 to 90, stands to reason when you consider the level of player fatigue that would be involved at this stage of the game and fatigue will always eventually lead to errors.
Therefore, if you are looking to place an in-play bet, it is better to hold fire until the seconds tick down and if you want to test your nerve in the final 15 minutes of the game, then you’ll have a better chance of beating the bookmakers.