More Midweek Madness

More Midweek Madness

If you read my previous article, you would be aware that the pursuit of data driven excellence had taken a left turn and after an impressive first showing in the Bundesliga, the mood was somewhat tempered.

After a very impressive showing in the control week, one that saw seven out of nine correct data driven football predictions, there was a hint of reality last weekend, as only four were furthered followed up.

However, undettered by this and with the need to test, test and test again, it is time for a quickfire return to action, because there is a rather rare midweek set of German top flight fixtures to analyse.

After two rather differing weeks in terms of performances, it is too early to tell what ‘BundesBot’s fighting weight is and therefore, I am going to run the exact same variant of the model from weeks 0 and 1.

In doing this, I can get a better idea of which one was the standard week and which one went either over or under performance. Quite simply, if I can return to seven out of nine, rather than four, I know that I have the strong framework to build upon.

Before I reveal the picks for this weeks, its time to see what the current form guide looks like:

DER KLASSIKER

Of course, the one fixture that leaps off of the chart above is Der Klassiker between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, a clash that will go someway to defining the destination of the Bundesliga title.

While Bayer Leverkusen will be looking to continue their impressive home form and maintain a top four slot, while Borussia Monchengladbach will look to return to winning ways after losing to the Kai Havertz show on Saturday,

Schalke have lost their last two since the restart and all of a sudden, David Wagner’s men find themselves with fading hopes as far as qualification for next season’s Europa League is concerned.

But that’s enough of setting the scene, lets now take a look at the most important aspect and that is the data driven football predictions that ‘BundesBot’ has served up for the next two evenings:

BIG NEWS FOR BAYERN

According to ‘BundesBot’ it seems as if the Bundesliga title will be staying in Bavaria, as it has predicted that Bayern Munich will win out in this evening German megaclash, good news for Hans-Dieter Flick.

That is if the model is correct, if its not, it means that the race for this season’s German championship could be blown wide open by the end of this evening. So does the direction of the title, rest on this very prediction?

If the model is correct, Bayern will take a huge step towards an eighth straight title. However, if it is incorrect, Dortmund’s hopes of winning a first German crown since 2012 under Jurgen Klopp are still very much alive.

BAYER LEVERQUESTION

Once again Bayer Leverkusen’s fixture has thrown up a very interesting outcome and even though they are at home and on an incredible run of form, they are only down to draw at home to Wolfsburg on Tuesday.

I think the reason this has come about, is that the two sides are fourth and sixth respectively in the table and ‘BundesBot’ feels that there is not enough positional difference between the two sides for Bayer to win.

If we were going by gut feel alone, then I would be all over Bayer this evening. But the model has spoken and we will have to see if he is correct in this outcome, espeically when last week it went against the grain and went for Kai and co to win away in Monchengladbach.

WHAT THE ODDS

With a couple of draws invovlved, this should fatten up the odds slightly – although there are a whole range of against the grain bets this midweek:

For example RB Leipzig have come off a red hot 5-0 win in midweek, but Hertha Berlin have won their last two under their new boss and have a better comparitive away form, something that suggests the team from the capital will come out on top.

Now with so many bets going against the bookmakers and a couple of draws also, the odds for a nine-fold are absolutely staggering this week: 38,956/1

WHAT IS THE POINT

Well I guess the point is that, IF and that is an absolutely massive IF, then it will be a win that you could not even imagine but even looking at these odds, I’m thinking to myself, I may have been better off just keeping the 1 unit of currency instead.

However, we can once again look at this from a double chance point of view and even with an extra layer of insurance, this might actually something that is a little more feasible and offers a handsome prize pot at the same time.

By going for this double chance combo:

Bayern and Draw
Leverkusen and Draw
Freiburg and Draw
Monchengladbach and Draw
Hertha Berlin and Draw (this will coupon bust)
FC Koln and Draw
Schalke and Draw
Mainz and Draw
Augsburg and Draw

The odds have been reduced to 40/1 – something that should not be sniffed at, especially with a greater level of insurance involved. Therefore, I think this is the more direction of hope over the next two evenings.

Ok, so that is the stall set for this midweek round, hopefully by raft of data driven football predictions come good. Put it this way, if that original nine-fold does come good, I promise you will never hear from me again.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at [email protected]. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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