More European Data

More European Data

More European Data

The pursuit for data driven betting excellence, once again takes something of a continental twist and although the attempt at Premier League modelling has got lost in the Christmas shuffle, that does not mean the numbers have not been crunched elsewhere.

Once again, it is nothing more than a European data dump, as I’ve analysed the Over/Under 2.5 goals market across the continent and hopefully this probability table, will allow you to make some data driven football predictions.

The likelihood of games ending Over 2.5 goals is ranked from top to bottom and of course, those matches at the bottom can also be looked at from the Under 2.5 vantage as well and without further ado, it is time to tuck into some stats:

League Home Away Over 2.5 Over 2.5 Prediction
Bundesliga Bayern Munich Hoffenheim 77.78% Over 2.5
Serie A Sampdoria Juventus 68.42% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Nantes Monaco 64.29% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Stuttgart M’gladbach 63.89% Over 2.5
Serie A Atalanta Lazio 63.16% Over 2.5
Serie A Napoli Parma 63.16% Over 2.5
Serie A Spezia Udinese 63.16% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Ein Frankfurt Hertha 61.11% Over 2.5
Serie A Inter Benevento 60.53% Over 2.5
Serie A Bologna Milan 60.53% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Lorient Paris SG 58.57% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Union Berlin Mainz 58.33% Over 2.5
Serie A Crotone Genoa 57.89% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Strasbourg Reims 57.14% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Lyon Bordeaux 57.14% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Montpellier Lens 57.14% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Dortmund Augsburg 55.56% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Wolfsburg Freiburg 55.56% Over 2.5
Serie A Roma Verona 55.26% Over 2.5
Serie A Torino Fiorentina 55.26% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Angers Nimes 53.69% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Werder Bremen Schalke 04 52.78% Over 2.5
Bundesliga RB Leipzig Leverkusen 52.78% Over 2.5
Serie A Cagliari Sassuolo 52.63% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Nice St Etienne 51.31% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Marseille Rennes 51.07% Over 2.5
Bundesliga FC Koln Bielefeld 50.00% Over 2.5
La Liga Barcelona Ath Bilbao 50.00% Over 2.5
La Liga Valencia Elche 46.94% Under 2.5
Ligue 1 Brest Metz 45.24% Under 2.5
La Liga Villarreal Sociedad 45.00% Under 2.5
La Liga Granada Celta 45.00% Under 2.5
La Liga Real Madrid Levante 44.74% Under 2.5
La Liga Getafe Alaves 40.92% Under 2.5
La Liga Betis Osasuna 40.00% Under 2.5
Ligue 1 Lille Dijon 38.10% Under 2.5
La Liga Cadiz Ath Madrid 36.94% Under 2.5
La Liga Eibar Sevilla 33.29% Under 2.5
La Liga Valladolid Huesca 32.50% Under 2.5

As a rule of thumb anything in the 45-55% bracker I would avoid, as it could go either way while those matches at the extreme ends of the table should set you in good stead in terms of Over/Under bets for the weekend.

Happy punting and thanks for reading – to discuss this or any other projects you have, feel free to message me at either @dantracey1983 on Twitter or email me:


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