Let It Ride
Let It Ride
If you read my previous article, you will be aware that my pursuit of data driven betting excellence took something of a reverse direction and with a number of shocks in the Bundesliga last weekend, the rate of success had subsequently declined.
Still with just four gameweeks of the German top flight remaining, we may as well see the project out and with a success rate 53.3% thus far, it is working slightly better than that of what we would call gut-instinct.
With that said, you would want to be getting at least two-thirds of the Bundesliga results correct in terms of data driven football predictions and although ‘BundesBot’ has had two rather impressive weeks, it has also batted below average on three others.
Therefore the trend seems to point to a middling level of success and there is perhaps a sense that returning two weeks with seven correct results, may be somewhat skewing the actual level of overall performance.
Then again, if it weren’t for a number of slip ups last time around, ‘BundesBot’ would have once again met the two/thirds threshold. Therefore, perhaps we shouldn’t be too hard on his performance over the past few weeks.
LETS HAVE SOME MORE
That’s the theory from last week’s results, now its time to set the stall for this coming round of Bundesliga fixtures and another raft of data driven football predictions. To do that, here’s the home/away form guide.
The focus once again lies on the Allianz Arena and with Bayern Munich facing a second top five club in two weeks, they will look to move a step closer to clinching an eighth straight German league championship.
While all Borussia Dortmund can do is keep winning their games and hope that the Bavarian outfit ahead slip up – although to be honest the way that Hans-Dieter Flick’s men have been playing as of late, that seems like incredibly wishful thinking.
Of course, the race for fourth place is the one that is garnering the most attention lately and with Bayer Leverkusen travelling to an out of sorts Schalke, Peter Bosz will be hoping that his men can take full advantage of any Monchengladbach slip up.
MACHINE OPERATED
With that quickfire focus on the top five, lets see what this latest round of data driven football predictions looks like and whether this is the magical set of nine, that subsequently delivers a bundle of riches.
Now regular readers (of which there are some) will notice that there is always a rather frankly result that is predicted each week and I wonder if you can spot it this time around? Yes the eagle eyed will notice that Bayen Munich and Borussia Monchengladbach is labelled as a draw.
Now if Bayern were away from home, I could perhaps understand. However, this is not the case and although advantage in front of your own ‘fans’ has been somewhat nullified, this could be something of a leap of faith.
Also there a lot more draws being served up this week and that could prove to be either a help or hindrance. One thing it will do is fatten up the nine-fold accumulator and with that in mind, lets see how big that turns out to be……6,875/1
THIS IS GOING TO BE HEFTY
That’s almost double the size of last week’s nine-fold data driven accumulator and if we underperformed last time around, the signs do not look overtly positive and it looks like some against the grain results are going to be required.
Four draws is always going to be a big ask (especially Bayern Munich vs Borussia Monchengladbach), not to mention the fact that ‘BundesBot’ has picked Freiburg as an outside winner aswell, once again adding lots more to scale to the final odds.
Still this is the hand that I’ve been dealt and I’m going to stick with it, if only because with four gameweeks of the season to go, I am now more intrigued to see the level of success with a model that is completely unchanged.
NO TWEAKS UNDER THE BONNET
Usually after a bad week in terms of data driven football predictions, I would look to rip things apart and start again. This time though, I’m going to say to myself “This is what I have built and now let’s see if it actually works”
A success rate of 53.3% says that fundamentally there is still some work to be done, but that is work that can be carried out next season and more importantly, when we have a full unbroken run of fixtures once again.
The element of stop start will undoubtedly have some effect on what has happened in terms of results and although it is not the sole reason, there’s no doubt a lack of fans has scuppered home advantage.
Whether that has actually helped or hindered me, I’m not too sure. I think the fact that I’ve not added any additional home weight to any matches may well have been a blessing, especially when the big teams win as expected.
TAKE A DOUBLE CHANCE
The double chance data driven football predictions have been relatively successful and from 36 picks, 27 have got over the line. Although once again, the ultimate aim is to win a nine-fold accumulator at far lesser odds.
With that mind and with much more insurance to protect us, here is this weeks data driven double chance picks:
RB Leipzig and Draw
Borussia Dortmund and Draw
Draw and FC Koln
Draw and Hertha Berlin
Werder Bremen and Draw
Freiburg and Draw
Draw and Bayern Munich
Draw and Mainz
Bayer Leverkusen and Draw
At total of roughly 9/1. Not bank busting, but we’ve got very close to landing this one – therefore no harm in chucking another couple of generic currency units at it. Ok, that’s your lot for this one, I might try and get some Spanish stats added in as a bonus treat for you. So keep an eye out for those.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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