Just The Three
Just The Three
Admittedly the previous article in this particular series was a fortnight ago and although that was more due to a mixture of midweek English Premier League fixtures and F.A. Cup scheduling, my quest for data driven betting perfection has not been forgotten.
Then again with the turn of results that had come about from ‘PremBot’, it is perhaps best that we did, because it turns out he is not a data driven football predictions messiah, he is in fact a very naughty boy.
In order to work out just how much punishment needs to dished out, lets first take a look at how the results January 18th and 19th panned out:
A paltry three out of ten and to be honest it was looking so well by the time Watford and Tottenham played out that dour goalless draw at Vicarage Road. However, that really was the point where is not going to get any better.
In a week of relative shocks, all of Manchester City, Chelsea and Leicester failed to win and that ultimately was the difference between a more respectable six out of ten – which lends itself to this important question?
SHOCKS OR NOT FIT FOR PURPOSE
To be honest this is where I am going to have to stick up for ‘PremBot’ because the week before he got no fewer than seven correct with exactly the same logic as before. So in fairness, I am going to look at this from a far too many shocks point of view.
However, that three out of ten does absolutely no favours for me from an overall predicition point of view and that means that we have a success rate of 46.6%, one that arguably leans towards just working off of gut feel alone.
In addition to that, the average correct picks from ‘StatBot’ per gameweek is 4.66, to be honest we should be looking to get that up to five, in order to give us some more mid-table respectability, as we approach the ‘business end’ of the season.
Then again, a fool and their money are very easily parted and that means that tomorrow will see more do it all once more. While thankfully we have to no longer worry about new manager bounces and the like.
Now I can look at form/league tables and as a pure metric and decide what if anyting needs changing. We were a lot closer to a successful amount of data driven football predictions three weeks ago, let’s hope the Premier League does not have another off day this weeekend.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.