Just Blind Picks

Just Blind Picks

If you read my previous article, you will know that I presented an insight into betting on corners and although nothing is foolproof when it comes to data driven betting excellence, it should at least allow you to make somre more informed choices in this market.

However, now it is time to focus on data driven football predictions once again and with the Premier League season just hours away, the ability to analyse is one that appears on the agenda for the next eight months.

Of course, as we go into week 1 of the season, there is very little in the way of data and when you consider that the models I used last season were buillt around both form and probability, that leaves us in something in a bind.

OR DOES IT?

With nothing in the way of form guide (we could use the end of last season, but that gets a bit murky when you consider promoted clubs into the mix), we are going to have to go to more old school methods for the first few weeks of the season.

Nothing more than just blind picks will be the order of the day and in doing so, it is going to give a perfect reference in terms of data driven football predictions and how it compares against gut feel and instinct.

This season, I am going to record a set of blind picks first without the concious bias of seeing the data up close and then I will feed the process into the models I have built, to see how right or wrong both my instict and the model wil be.

With that in mind, it is time to offer up my eight predictions for this opening Premier League weekend – a list that looks as follows:

Arsenal
Draw
Liverpool
Draw
Leicester
Tottenham
Wolves
Chelsea

Combined odds of 308/1 and because the project would be nothing without an element of financial interest, I will stick 1 currency unit on as an all-in weekend acca.

And just to make things even more interesting, I am also going to use a random data sample each week to see if their gut instinct is stronger than mine. This week, the sample has selected the following:

Arsenal
Crystal Palace
Liverpool
West Ham
Leicester
Tottenham
Wolves
Chelsea

Interestingly no draws have been selected and because of this the odds are 203/1 by comparison.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Tomorrow, 12 Sep			1	X	2	B’s
11:30	Fulham – Arsenal		+488	+334	-175	12
14:00	Crystal Palace – Southampton		+225	+229	+136	12
16:30	Liverpool – Leeds		-323	+501	+836	12
19:00	West Ham – Newcastle		+114	+254	+246	11
13 Sep 2020			1	X	2	B’s
13:00	West Brom – Leicester		+289	+263	-101	11
15:30	Tottenham – Everton		-110	+254	+330	12
14 Sep 2020			1	X	2	B’s
17:00	Sheffield Utd – Wolves		+239	+208	+141	12
19:15	Brighton – Chelsea		+413	+321	-152

From this list, I have opted for six favourites and two draws, there is nothing that sees me “go against the grain” as it were and also this season, I am going to take a look at the amount of times the bookmakers (and me) get it wrong.

WHAT ARE YOUR GOALS?

Now, I could also offer up a set of blind picks when it comes to Under/Over 2.5 goals – although without any data this could be a very thankless task and when you consider that my model returned a near 70% success rate last time around. I am going to hold tight until week six before I unleash on the world again.

That is about if for this article, not overly extensive but the analysis regarding data driven football predictions will come very soon, as once we’ve got a few fixtures behind us, we can begin to crunch the numbers even further.

Of course, there is scope for plenty more leagues this season and now that I am starting from the cleanest of slates, we won’t be able to move for data and hopefully some financial rewards at the end of it all.

Happy punting and thanks for reading.

(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at [email protected]. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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