Home And Away

Home And Away

Now admittedly there has not been a great deal of activity from me in these past few days, if only because we’ve been in the darkness of the international break. However, I have finally got round to adding in my developer notes page

In doing this, it means you can get a brief snapshot of when key changes have been made and it also means that I don’t lose track of the progress that has been made over the past few weeks. Anyway enough about the background work, it’s time to get back to business.

That business of course being betting on the Russian Premier League and first up lets see what ‘StatBot’ has thrown up for me over the course of the weekend:

Home And Away

Now for the eagle eyed among you, you will notice that ‘StatBot’ has thrown up no home wins this week. Something that even going one ‘gut instinct’ alone, you would think surely that cannot happen.
However, with that said, there might be a certain caveat to that.

One that looks as such:

Home And Away

If you look at the form guides, you will see that the ‘stronger’ teams in head to head format are based away from home this weekend – with the exception of FC Orenburg. Therefore if you were looking at this guide alone, you would be inclined to look more at away wins.

Unfortunately we know that football does not work like this an one cannot underestimate the value of a home crowd roaring their fans to victory and at present this is something, that ‘StatBot’ has yet to take into account and after referencing this in my previous article it is something that is going to have been amended soon.

Then again, I have turned a profit in these past two weeks of operation and with a mixture of ‘if it ain’t broke don’t fix it’ and perhaps stubbornness, I’m going to leave the model unchanged from before the international break.

Ultimately will this blind faith mean I come unstuck or will some lesser tipped outcomes get me over the line again this week? Once again I am going to go with the even split of 8 units, which ultimately means 1 unit per game.

Therefore this could be a week in which I either crash or burn or just need a couple to get over the line (because odds are more than 2.0) to edge into profit for the third consecutive week in a row. Whatever the outcome, changes will be made because the look of feel of these results feel a bit off.

Changes that won’t be made until next week and come Tuesday, I’ll review the fallout of ‘StatBot’ and his latest efforts

Happy punting and thanks for reading, Dan.

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at [email protected]. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

Follow me on Facebook at Dan The Stat Man
You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *