European Data Dump
European Data Dump
The pursuit for data driven betting excellence, takes something of a continental twist and although the attempt at Premier League modelling has got lost in the Christmas shuffle, that does not mean the numbers have not been crunched elsewhere.
Quite simply this week, it is nothign more than a European data dump, as I’ve analysed the Over/Under 2.5 goals market across the continent and hopefully this probability table, will allow you to make some data driven football predictions.
The likelihood of games ending Over 2.5 goals is ranked from top to bottom and of course, those matches at the bottom can also be looked at from the Under 2.5 vantage as well and without further ado, it is time to tuck into some stats:
| League | Home | Away | Over 2.5 | Over 2.5 Prediction |
| Serie A | Spezia | Sampdoria | 81.25% | Over 2.5 |
| Serie A | Roma | Inter | 71.88% | Over 2.5 |
| Serie A | Milan | Torino | 71.88% | Over 2.5 |
| Bundesliga | M’gladbach | Bayern Munich | 71.43% | Over 2.5 |
| Bundesliga | Schalke 04 | Hoffenheim | 67.86% | Over 2.5 |
| Ligue 1 | Paris SG | Brest | 63.89% | Over 2.5 |
| Ligue 1 | Monaco | Angers | 63.89% | Over 2.5 |
| Serie A | Parma | Lazio | 62.50% | Over 2.5 |
| Ligue 1 | Montpellier | Nantes | 61.11% | Over 2.5 |
| Bundesliga | Mainz | Ein Frankfurt | 60.71% | Over 2.5 |
| Ligue 1 | Lens | Strasbourg | 59.97% | Over 2.5 |
| Serie A | Genoa | Bologna | 59.38% | Over 2.5 |
| Serie A | Juventus | Sassuolo | 59.38% | Over 2.5 |
| Serie A | Benevento | Atalanta | 58.54% | Over 2.5 |
| Ligue 1 | Rennes | Lyon | 58.33% | Over 2.5 |
| Serie A | Udinese | Napoli | 54.58% | Over 2.5 |
| Bundesliga | Freiburg | FC Koln | 53.57% | Over 2.5 |
| Bundesliga | Bielefeld | Hertha | 53.57% | Over 2.5 |
| Bundesliga | Augsburg | Union Berlin | 53.57% | Over 2.5 |
| Bundesliga | RB Leipzig | Dortmund | 53.57% | Over 2.5 |
| Ligue 1 | Reims | St Etienne | 52.78% | Over 2.5 |
| Ligue 1 | Nimes | Lille | 50.00% | Over 2.5 |
| Ligue 1 | Bordeaux | Lorient | 50.00% | Over 2.5 |
| Serie A | Fiorentina | Cagliari | 50.00% | Over 2.5 |
| Bundesliga | Leverkusen | Werder Bremen | 50.00% | Over 2.5 |
| Bundesliga | Stuttgart | Wolfsburg | 50.00% | Over 2.5 |
| La Liga | Granada | Barcelona | 48.16% | Under 2.5 |
| La Liga | Valladolid | Valencia | 47.06% | Under 2.5 |
| Serie A | Verona | Crotone | 46.88% | Under 2.5 |
| La Liga | Celta | Villarreal | 41.18% | Under 2.5 |
| Ligue 1 | Metz | Nice | 40.52% | Under 2.5 |
| La Liga | Osasuna | Real Madrid | 39.34% | Under 2.5 |
| Ligue 1 | Dijon | Marseille | 38.54% | Under 2.5 |
| La Liga | Ath Madrid | Ath Bilbao | 36.11% | Under 2.5 |
| La Liga | Huesca | Betis | 35.29% | Under 2.5 |
| La Liga | Levante | Eibar | 33.46% | Under 2.5 |
| La Liga | Elche | Getafe | 32.29% | Under 2.5 |
| La Liga | Sevilla | Sociedad | 29.44% | Under 2.5 |
| La Liga | Cadiz | Alaves | 29.41% | Under 2.5 |
As a rule of thumb anything in the 45-55% bracker I would avoid, as it could go either way while those mathces at the extreme ends of the table should set you in good stead in terms of Over/Under bets for the weekend.
Happy punting and thanks for reading – to discuss this or any other projects you have, feel free to message me at either @dantracey1983 on Twitter or email me: dan@realfootballman.com
(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)