Deutschland Uber Alles
Deutschland Uber Alles
If you read my previous article, you will be all too aware the Belarus Premier League is now in full swing and with my attempt of data driven excellence falling somewhat wide of the mark last week, it is time to focus on a more ‘Super’ league.
The league in question is the Bundesliga and with audiences around the world starved for major football over the past few months, the return of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund will be salvation to so many.
It also means that there are a whole host of stats available and after doing my best to make sense of the madness which is Belarussian football (although there will be more of that this weekend), buidling some German data driven football predictions, should be a touch easy.
Then again, I say should and this weekend could end up being the most difficult of them all and with the COVID-19 hiatus pausing proceedings for the best part of two months, there might just be an element of ring rust to the upcoming festivities.
THE GREAT EQUALISER
Although we are three quarters of the way through the Bundesliga, there is an air of pre-season planning to all of this and when you consider, training regimes have also been minimalised also, there is a question regarding who has prepared the most.
The obvious focus will be on the three main title challengers, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig – with this trio knowing that they cannot afford to move out of the blocks slowly and if they do, it could cost them a genuine title tilt.
When you look at Bayern this season, they have had a rather topsy turvy campaign and up until November, many were questioning if this current German dynasty of dominance was finally coming to and end.
However, the installation of Hans-Dieter Flick as then interim manager was nothing short of a masterstroke and with Bayern now four points clear at the top, it is no surprise that the caretaker has been given the Allianz Arena keys on a permanent basis.
WIth a relatively easy clash away at Union Berlin, you would imagine them to pick up where they left off. Although at the same time, is there a nagging voice that says, there’s something not quite right about this weekend.
For Borussia Dortmund, they will hope it is alright on the night (well afternoon) as they take on local rivals Schalke in the Ruhr Derby and without question, this will be the most difficult test for each of the three title contenders.
Which when you consider that Dortmund reportedly have the following names out of action:
Can, Witsel, Reus, Zagadou, Schulz – that is going to make a difficult task all the more tougher and it may actually also cause some problems for myself further down this article (more on that in a minute or two)
While of course, that RB Leipzig should give you wins, as the enemy of the German game play host to Freiburg and will be looking to make sure, that the race for the Bundesliga is one that still contains three horses by the end of the weekend.
ENOUGH OF THE PREVIEW
To be honest, you could have read a match preview or two anywhere across on the website and without the pretence of words for words sake, it’s time to get down to business. Business that comes in the form of ‘BundesBot’
‘BundesBot’ has been charged with offering up some data driven football predictions for the rest of the season and although we are so far into the season, there is a sense of reboot and one that comes with having to lay some control measures.
Which means this will once again be a baseline measure for future performance, although you must also rememeber that past performance is not a true indicator of how things will pan out in the future (which perhaps renders a form index somewhat moot or perhaps it cannot be the only sole factor)
Therefore with that in mind, as always lets lay the ground work and do a bit of preparation. Somethign that comes in the shape of the form guide across the last six matches:
While for any new fans, let me just explain the colours in the central columns:
The value is the number of points earned in the last six matches (the last six home vs the last six away)
Orange – is the hottest points tally
Blue – is the coolest
Green – The most points from the head to head
WHAT STANDS OUT
Bayer Leverkusen going up against Werder Bremen and the hosts having lost all of their last six matches bodes rather well, but at the same time there is the COVID-19 caveat mentioned above to consider.
While Dortmund on the image above look clear favourites to get the better of their local rivals Schalke. But as referenced, they do have a number of injury concerns and this is something that ‘BundesBot’ cannot really factor in, or for that matter a global pandemic.
Therefore if you were going from gut-instinct, those two and most likely Bayern Munich would be your treble picks. Then again, I can go six better than that and here is the full offering from ‘BundesBot’ this weekend:
What is interesting here, is that the model has picked a winner in eight of the nine games and to be honest with such a lack of sharpness, it could go either way. One way, is a lack of creativity and a lack of goals or the other is an absolute abundance.
With that mind, the fact that this nowhere near what can be considered ‘draw heavy’ will be a test of strategy over the weekend and with it being a control model, we can always go back and tweak it down the line.
In terms of the model itself it looks at the comparison in form, using a form index and I’ve also applied some weight in terms of league positions – but it could be a crapshoot when all is said and done or it could be the most memorable week by sheer fluke.
If is the latter, than to be honest I’m not really going to argue. With that in mind, there’s not a great deal of additional analysis that can be done and I’ve gone quite long in this article anyway, so with that said…..
(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.