David Versus Goliath

David Versus Goliath

If you read one of my earlier articles, you will know that my data driven betting operation has taken a leap of faith and it is one that is no longer bound to just the English Premier League, instead in this article we are going all the way down to the National League.

If you didn’t read the article, do not worry too much, as that was just outlining the increase in production and if you are aware of how my Premier League Over 2.5 betting works, the principle is fundamentally the same.

However, I have also built a further level of insurance to these recommended bets and that is a new element called ‘Teamwork’

DOES TEAMWORK MAKE THE DREAMWORK?

You may or may not be aware that I work on a 55% probability threshold and that is calculated as such:

Home Team’s percentage of games played ending in Over 2.5 goals + Away Team’s percentage of games played ending in Over 2.5 goals/2

If the percentage is more than 55% I recommend betting on Over 2.5 goals.

Although that is not the perfect equation and here I will explain as to why.

Say for example Liverpool have played in 75% of games ending in Over 2.5 goals and Watford have played in 40% – that with the calculation above would end up at 57.5% and would clear the necessary recommended threshold.

However, Liverpool seem to be doing a lot more of the grunt work in this equation and the only reason it would be recommended as an Over 2.5 bet, is because the attacking efforts of Jurgen Klopp’s men, rather than the Hornets also being capable of finding the net.

Therefore in this evolution of the model, I am stripping out all teams that have less than 50% of games played ending in Over 2.5 goals. In doing this, the teams aren’t working against each other – instead there is an element of teamwork.

THAT’S THE THEORY, JUST GIVE US THE PICKS

Now that the logic has been laid out, I am going to serve up the eight hottest recommended Over 2.5 goal bets, across each of England’s top five divisions. I have analysed 57 matches this week and these are the best of the best.

While in this opening week, I am only going to focus on the Over markets, I have all the data for Under as well, but quite simply the currency this week is GOALS and with that in mind, here are my ‘Red Hot Eight’

Because I’m nice, I’ve ranked them in league level order (so that it is easier for you to place your bets) but of the 57 matches that were analysed, these are the eight that return the highest probability (no matches were stripped out due to non-teamwork)

In addition to that, there are actually 13 matches in total that have cleared the criteria and therefore there are five that I would call the ‘Sub-Prime’ market, while there were also 17 matches that are recommended as Under bets.

TALKING OF BETS, WHAT IS THE STAKE?

This week, with there being eight games on offer, it allows me to do something different and that means I am going to test these on a bet called a ‘Super Goliath’ and it is one that factors in a level of insurance.

With these eight games there are 247 possible winning permutations (singles, doubles, trebles etc) and therefore I am going to bet on each line at a penny each (last of the big spenders) – it doesn’t sound a lot but there is some logic to this.

That’s because it is not a shit or bust accumulator and therefore I can afford some slip ups along the way. While should the majority of the picks come in, then all the possible winning combinations start to tally up and build up the prize pot.

The overall odds for getting all eight correct is less than a straight accumulator (roughly 10/1) but for me it’s all about adding in as many levels of insurance as possible and playing this over a long-term schedule (until the end of the season)

Some bookmakers may only allow 5p per line, therefore the bet goes up to £12.35 – if you feel that is too high a price point, then you are more than welcome to just pick the bones from these and build your own accumulators.

If that is the case or do you follow the Goliath method with me then best of luck, while if you are a fellow insurance better then it looks like five out of the eight recommended picks will return some form of profit.

Of course, you can bet anyway you want, I am just provided some insights from a data driven perspective. The stats do not lie at this point, we just have to hope that the teams involved stay true to form.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at [email protected]. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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