Data Driven Football Predictions
Data Driven Football Predictions
If you read my previous article, you will be aware that I have diverted my attention to Europe this weekend in a bid to offer up some data driven football predictions. However, perhaps it is now time to revert back to home shores and although the F.A. Cup looms large, there is still plenty of action both North and South of the border.
While it is a full Scottish league programme that has caught my eyes the most and with the action now resumnig after the Scottish Premiership mid-season break, it’s time to offer up some stats to inform your data driven betting.
DID YOU KNOW
For example, all of these clubs are yet to play in a 0-0 draw this season:
| League | Team | Over 0.5 |
| Premiership | Celtic | 100.00% |
| Premiership | Hibernian | 100.00% |
| Premiership | Rangers | 100.00% |
| Championship | Alloa | 100.00% |
| Championship | Ayr | 100.00% |
| Championship | Dundee United | 100.00% |
| Championship | Dunfermline | 100.00% |
| Championship | Morton | 100.00% |
| Championship | Partick | 100.00% |
| League Two | Cove Rangers | 100.00% |
| League Two | Edinburgh City | 100.00% |
| League Two | Stenhousemuir | 100.00% |
Each and everyone of the games played by 12 teams above had ended with at least 0.5 goals a game, there might be scope for a low level acca on that one this weekend, but what about something slightly meatier, what are the teams that turn in the highest 1.5 goals
| League | Team | Over 1.5 |
| Premiership | Celtic | 95.24% |
| Premiership | Hibernian | 95.45% |
| Championship | Alloa | 85.71% |
| Championship | Partick | 85.71% |
| League One | Stranraer | 90.00% |
| League Two | Annan Athletic | 85.71% |
| League Two | Cove Rangers | 95.00% |
| League Two | Stenhousemuir | 90.48% |
If you are looking for a bit more meat on the bones, then these eight teams have returned the highest percentage of games played that have ended in Over 1.5 goals for them. However, everyone knows that the industry standard is Over 2.5 goals, so if you wanted to make some data driven football predictions, maybe the following table could influence you instead
| League | Team | Over 2.5 |
| Premiership | Ross County | 76.19% |
| Championship | Morton | 70.00% |
| League One | Stranraer | 70.00% |
| League One | Albion Rvs | 72.22% |
| League Two | Brechin | 75.00% |
| League Two | Cove Rangers | 85.00% |
| League Two | Stenhousemuir | 71.43% |
While if we are looking at actual matches taking place this weekend, here are the ‘Scot 8’ – the games with the highest combined probabilty of finishing over 2.5 goals.
| League | Home | Away | Combined Over 2.5 |
| League Two | Cove Rangers | Annan Athletic | 75.83% |
| Premiership | Celtic | Ross County | 69.05% |
| League Two | Queens Park | Albion Rvs | 68.61% |
| League Two | Stenhousemuir | Edinburgh City | 68.21% |
| League Two | Cowdenbeath | Brechin | 66.45% |
| Premiership | Motherwell | Hibernian | 63.64% |
| Championship | Dundee United | Morton | 63.57% |
| League One | Airdrie Utd | Stranraer | 63.57% |
While if clean sheets are you bag, here is the 10 teams that have kept the most in percentage terms this season:
| League | Team | CS % |
| Premiership | Rangers | 55.00% |
| League One | Inverness C | 55.00% |
| Premiership | Falkirk | 52.38% |
| Premiership | Celtic | 47.62% |
| Premiership | Dundee United | 47.62% |
| Premiership | Cowdenbeath | 42.11% |
| League One | Motherwell | 40.91% |
| League One | Cove Rangers | 40.00% |
| Premiership | Kilmarnock | 36.36% |
| Premiership | Livingston | 36.36% |
Although what is arguably more interesting here is the fact that Partick Thislte in the Championship are yet to keep a single clean sheet. So you might want to back Arbroath for the home win this afternoon.
This data should allow you to at least get a better picture of the Scottish Leagues and in turn allow you to make data driven football predictions, which then hopefully help you get the better of the bookmakers come Saturday 5pm.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
Follow me on Facebook at Dan The Stat Man
You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud