Data Driven Football Predictions

Data Driven Football Predictions

Data Driven Football Predictions

If you read my previous article, you will be aware that I have diverted my attention to Europe this weekend in a bid to offer up some data driven football predictions. However, perhaps it is now time to revert back to home shores and although the F.A. Cup looms large, there is still plenty of action both North and South of the border.

While it is a full Scottish league programme that has caught my eyes the most and with the action now resumnig after the Scottish Premiership mid-season break, it’s time to offer up some stats to inform your data driven betting.


For example, all of these clubs are yet to play in a 0-0 draw this season:

League Team Over 0.5
Premiership Celtic 100.00%
Premiership Hibernian 100.00%
Premiership Rangers 100.00%
Championship Alloa 100.00%
Championship Ayr 100.00%
Championship Dundee United 100.00%
Championship Dunfermline 100.00%
Championship Morton 100.00%
Championship Partick 100.00%
League Two Cove Rangers 100.00%
League Two Edinburgh City 100.00%
League Two Stenhousemuir 100.00%

Each and everyone of the games played by 12 teams above had ended with at least 0.5 goals a game, there might be scope for a low level acca on that one this weekend, but what about something slightly meatier, what are the teams that turn in the highest 1.5 goals

League Team Over 1.5
Premiership Celtic 95.24%
Premiership Hibernian 95.45%
Championship Alloa 85.71%
Championship Partick 85.71%
League One Stranraer 90.00%
League Two Annan Athletic 85.71%
League Two Cove Rangers 95.00%
League Two Stenhousemuir 90.48%

If you are looking for a bit more meat on the bones, then these eight teams have returned the highest percentage of games played that have ended in Over 1.5 goals for them. However, everyone knows that the industry standard is Over 2.5 goals, so if you wanted to make some data driven football predictions, maybe the following table could influence you instead

League Team Over 2.5
Premiership Ross County 76.19%
Championship Morton 70.00%
League One Stranraer 70.00%
League One Albion Rvs 72.22%
League Two Brechin 75.00%
League Two Cove Rangers 85.00%
League Two Stenhousemuir 71.43%

While if we are looking at actual matches taking place this weekend, here are the ‘Scot 8’ – the games with the highest combined probabilty of finishing over 2.5 goals.

League Home Away Combined Over 2.5
League Two Cove Rangers Annan Athletic 75.83%
Premiership Celtic Ross County 69.05%
League Two Queens Park Albion Rvs 68.61%
League Two Stenhousemuir Edinburgh City 68.21%
League Two Cowdenbeath Brechin 66.45%
Premiership Motherwell Hibernian 63.64%
Championship Dundee United Morton 63.57%
League One Airdrie Utd Stranraer 63.57%

While if clean sheets are you bag, here is the 10 teams that have kept the most in percentage terms this season:

League Team CS %
Premiership Rangers 55.00%
League One Inverness C 55.00%
Premiership Falkirk 52.38%
Premiership Celtic 47.62%
Premiership Dundee United 47.62%
Premiership Cowdenbeath 42.11%
League One Motherwell 40.91%
League One Cove Rangers 40.00%
Premiership Kilmarnock 36.36%
Premiership Livingston 36.36%

Although what is arguably more interesting here is the fact that Partick Thislte in the Championship are yet to keep a single clean sheet. So you might want to back Arbroath for the home win this afternoon.

This data should allow you to at least get a better picture of the Scottish Leagues and in turn allow you to make data driven football predictions, which then hopefully help you get the better of the bookmakers come Saturday 5pm.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud

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