Combination Of Factors
Combination Of Factors
If you read one of my articles from last weekend, you will know that the quest for data driven perfection has taken a step in the positive direction and it once again seems as the Premier League Over 2.5 goals market is one that has proved to be pretty fruitful.
However, now is not the time to rest on one’s laurels and with the data sample still needing something in the way of expansion, it is time to once again serve up another round of predictions but this time they have a small twist.
COMBINING FORCES
That’s because in the past I have served up separate content for the straight up modelling and the Over/Under 2.5 goal bets, but in doing so it has begged the question “why not just combine your efforts into one model?”
After multiple requests (ok a handful, that is exactly what I have done) and therefore this weekend my offerings from ‘PremBot’ will also have information from ‘GoalBot’ tacked onto it, as I bring to you the birth of ‘PremGoalBot’
Last week saw me return 70% of my Premier League predictions, therefore there was much need to tweak the model itself, it was more about adding on the element of over/under goals as well, although with this being week 1, it might still be a little rough around the edges.
For example if we take the Norwich vs Bournemouth and Southampton vs Wolves matches, they are going to have to require at least a 2-2 draw for the prediction to come good. Which might be asking a bit much
If we compare to that to Manchester City win and Over 2.5 goals, that’s not really going to move the needle all that much, so with combinations such as that it might make sense to leave your money in your pocket.
AN ADDITIONAL CAVEAT
Obviously there are 10 games in the list above and in terms of the single w/d/l, then all those matches are on the table so to speak. However, when it comes to the goals market, I usually tend to approach with a bit of caution.
That’s because there is a 5% margin of error in terms of whether to back Over or Under but this one is literally taking the straight result from my database and adding it to the relevant column. This means that all the games are showing a combination, but some I personally would avoid.
A COMBINATION OF ERRORS
The games that I would not be asking for a result and goal combo are the following:
Norwich vs Bournemouth
Southampton vs Wolves
Newcastle vs Chelsea
West Ham vs Everton
Therefore the six games you should consider for a multi-bet are:
| Burnley | Leicester | Leicester Win | Over 2.5 |
| Brighton | Aston Villa | Brighton Win | Over 2.5 |
| Liverpool | Manchester United | Liverpool Win | Over 2.5 |
| Watford | Tottenham | Draw | Over 2.5 |
| Man City | Crystal Palace | Man City Win | Over 2.5 |
| Arsenal | Sheffield United | Draw | Under 2.5 |
I know Betfair don’t allow you to add the multi-bet combinations into an accumulator, but do feel free to try other bookmakers (although to be fair, I would be surprised if they did as well) and I’ll see how successful these six combo bets were at the end of the week.
For me, I need to work on some action points and perhaps build in an avoid goal bet mechanism for the next weekend game week (might have time to do this for midweek) but I certainly think that this can be a bit more polished. Still a good framwework if nothing else.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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