Built To Scale
Built To Scale
If you read my previous article on trying to crack the Over 2.5 goals market, you will know that my data driven approach was one that came a little unstuck last weekend and although the period of English Premier League success was curtailed, that was not necessarily a bad thing.
That’s because after a week that saw only two correct picks from the recommended five that were made available, it was the impetus to finally get round to the often mentioned promise of scaling up operations.
That’s because even after an indifferent return last weekend, the overall success is still at a rather healthy 77.7% and if that is just for the Premier League alone, then why not look to expand that logic over more competitions.
ANARCHY IN THE UK
Which is exactly what I’ve done and after a week of background testing, I can announce that ‘EngBot’ is ready to be unleashed on the weekend betting markets and with 57 potential fixtures to analyse each week, this model is incredibly data rich.
It’s five times more powerful than what I was working with before and not only that it also opens itself to a lot more markets to bet on (over 1.5/under 3.5 as just two examples), while in addition to that, the model can also be ported across to Scotland and Europe’s leagues.
Those two variants will be rolled out in time (start of 2020 – what with winter breaks, so no great rush) but it now means that the tools are in place, to really have a stab at the Over 2.5 total goals market and more importantly not just in the Premier League.
WHY HAS THIS BEEN DONE?
Because the more variety of competitions that are available, the greater the chance of finding games with greater probability. Whereas before we were working on the basis of say 5 or 6 Premier League fixtures per week, this can now be opened up to tiers one through five.
In theory, this means that the probability of success is higher – because if you were picking the top five games in the Premier League in terms of probability, they would look something like:
Match 1 – 68%
Match 2 – 60%
Match 3 – 58%
Match 4 – 57%
Match 5 – 56%
Whereas if we are taking the best from the best, across all the top five English leagues, it means that the amount of recommended games will increase substantially and the very best matches will have at least a 60% probability chance.
Which means, you are not betting on games that are only just clearing the 5% threshold (at least 55% probability to bet), but actually pulling clear of that by some difference and in doing this, there is a greater chance of overall success each week.
Admittedly the bookmakers, may reflect this in their odds, but at least you are going into each weekend with the best possible chance of success and although there are no guarantees, the first few weeks of Premier League testing has shown a very decent return.
Therefore with only a limited pool of 10 games per week, we are slightly restricted by the sample size and with the new expansive model in place, we are good to go and I am ready to put my money where my mouth is tomorrow.
Although, with out giving too much away, I will also be trying a different betting method and one that may end up giving us a perceived edge over time. Again there are no guarantees, but this is purely data driven betting and we won’t know if it’s a success until we try. Come back tomorrow for the tips!
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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