Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score
If you have read one of my previous articles you will be fully aware that, I have had some recent success using probability as an indicator of future performance and thanks to this, I have been able to recommend a slew of winning Over 2.5 Goal tips.
Which means if you can use probability for one market, why not use it in another and with another round of English Premier League fixtures on the horizon, it is time to play the percentages and look at the Both Teams To Score market.
Like the Over 2.5 goals market, I will work on the basis of 50% being the split for YES/NO and also factor in a 5% margin of error. Which means the probability will have to be more than 55% for a YES and less than 45% for a NO.
HOW IS THE PROBABILITY CALCULATED
To get the percentage figure we need we must:
Take the percentage of games that the home team has been a game that has ended with Both Teams To Score and it to the same percentage for the away and the divide that by 2.
If it is over 55% back Both Teams To Score
If it 45-54.99% Ignore (or bet at your own risk, as too tight to call)
If it is under 45% back Both Teams Not To Score
So with the logic explained, let’s take a look at the first raft of bets that are on offer:
As you can see from here, there are 8 recommended bets this weekend – 7 of which are BTTS and 1 that isn’t. As this is the control week, we will use this as the measure to compare and contrast and more importantly there is a variant of logic that can also be deployed.
The question is do we go with the combined probability of the two teams regardless of home or away or purely home probability vs away probability – that is something that we could perhaps run parallel in future weeks, in order to give a greater idea of actual success.
The percentage points are higher in the green bands when compared to Over 2.5 Goals and this is reflected with the odds that are further away from evens (much shorter). However, this also means that is should be an easier bet to win.
Not only that but when we look at the success of my Over 2.5 picks, the last 19 out of 22 have been successful and although there are no guarantees when it comes to betting, a data driven approach will at least give you something of a perceived advantage.
I’m just going to test the success rate this week, so no money for me but if I was inclined to pick a few (remember we don’t necessarily need all 9 to come good) I would opt for the following games:
Wolves vs Tottenham
Arsenal vs Manchester City
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa
That’s my hottest of the three tips above, although you might think otherwise and you are more than welcome to use your own combinations. If you do place any bets and more importantly have a weekend winner, then please feel free to send your winning slips my way.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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