Better Left Alone

Better Left Alone

If you read my previous article on the English Premier League, you will be fully aware that I tried a new approach in my quest for data driven betting excellence and it is one that witnessed a fundamental change to the construction of ‘PremBot’

If you didn’t have time to read my previous offerings (why not?) then the biggest change can be explained in rudimentary fashion as such:

I’m now looking at league placings as factor only side form going into the game.

Which means it is time to recap on just how I did, although before I do that, let’s have a reminder of last week’s pick courtesy of ‘PremBot’

Going into the weekend, it looked like a reasonably set of picks. Although on the other side of the weekend, it looked anything but and the reason for this, is that I managed to return just three out of ten correct predictions.

My worst English Premier League performance yet, thankfully though there was no money involved in this round of betting, or this could have been a very miserable return. However, just because no transactions took place, doesn’t mean that ‘PremBot’ has got off the hook.

Getting The Excuses Out Of The Way

Looking at these picks, you would have thought both Everton and Arsenal would have picked up home wins, especially when you consider the opposition that they were up against. Then again, poor form for these clubs, doesn’t necessarily guarantee a home win either.

‘PremBot’ has now way of looking at any new manager bounce, that ship may have sailed but that is certainly something that will need to be looked at when the next sacking takes place (one that is probably only a week or so away)

There still could be some more home weight applied, because the Manchester City/Chelsea pick did feel a little suspect beforehand. Although, when it comes to betting hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Another thing to take into account, is whether or not the model itself is too rigid and it needs to be worked out more on a line by line basis. (I may expand on this point, in a separate article later or next week)

The Premier League in general has been an absolute nightmare to predict, due to anyone from fifth being capable of taking points off of each other (just six points separate 13 clubs at present)

On Reflection

However, even with these excuses lined up, it was still a very poor week in terms of performance and not the kind of hit rate I was looking for. Which begs the question, do I stick or twist in regard to this upcoming round of fixtures?

In all honesty, I will probably stick and look at this week as a ‘control week’ for this new edition of the ‘PremBot’, we certainly learned it didn’t work this time around but I’m not ready to throw the baby out with the bathwater….yet.

This means that out of the 40 Premier League matches that I’ve tried to predict through modelling, I have returned 19 correct picks – a hit rate of 47.5%, so not outrageously poor but there is still some work to be done over the next few weeks and months.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

 

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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