Back After The Break
Back After The Break
If you read my previous article in regard to trying to predict the results in the Russian Premier League and using a data driven approach in which to do so, you will be fully aware that in the week before the international break there was a return to profit.
While with the international breaks now fully behind us until March 2020 (thankfully) it means it is full steam ahead for ‘StatBot’ and that means it is once again time to look ahead at what is on the horizon for this weekend.
So without further ado, here are the predictions for this coming weekend (including Friday’s evening fixture)
Like in the previous article, I am basing it on model r2.0 – which means using the home’s team last six home games versus the away team’s last six away matches. However, I have made a further tweak and that is because of Krasnodar.
Regardless of home or away, they have drawn their last four Russian Premier League fixtures and originally ‘StatBot’ had this one down as another draw and although the form book suggests that the run will be extended to five, surely that run has to end at some point.
Therefore I’ve trimmed the weight required for an away team to get a win and with ‘StatBot’ being a little leaner, it means that FC Krasnodar away at Arsenal Tula has turned into a win for the visitors and not an outcome of honours even.
Is this the correct tweak?
Now the question that will have to be asked here, is whether or not I am leaning too much on FC Krasnodar to get a win this weekend and end their barren run. In a roundabout way the answer is both yes and no.
Yes because I am looking at their odds going into the game and they are 10/11 to win against Arsenal Tula. Which to me says, even with their lacklustre run of form , a win is just around the corner and hopefully as soon as this weekend.
While no, because when I made the change to the model, all the other picks stayed as before. Therefore the changes are not fundamental in nature and this can be reinforced when you compare the ‘StatBot’ choices to the bookmakers odds.
In five of the eight picks, they mimic what the bookmakers (in this case Betfair) with the only differences being:
Dinamo Moscow vs FC Rostov – Betfair say Dinamo win
FC Ufa vs PFC Sochi – Betfair say Ufa Win
CSKA Moscow vs Krylya – Betfair say CSKA Moscow win
What do all three of these games have in common – Betfair have them all done has home wins, therefore there is a large amount of home weight being placed on these matches and the ultimate question is whether it is too much?
The fact that I have matched five of my picks with that of a bookmakers, suggests that we are getting closer in tune and although that sounds good, it could actually cause something of a headache in terms of profit.
Ultimately this means, that I am finding less edge and this also means that if I don’t get the magic 8-fold over the line which this week is at odds of 771/1, I am going to probably need at least five picks to come good.
Which also means that if I’m not getting the 8-fold, one game would have already been incorrect and that means there is only a two game margin of error. This means ironically, I could get more individual picks correct than last time but actually lose money. Who would be a punter?
That’s the dilemma that I face this weekend, but I’ve hit the bet button now and all I can do is strap myself in for the ride. Will it be a fifth week (out of seven) in which I’ve turned a profit or will the pendulum swing the other way?
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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