An Alpine Betting Challenge
An Alpine Betting Challenge
If you read one of my previous articles, you will be aware that I decided to try a modelling concept on one of Europe’s more underrated leagues and that means the tentacles of data driven betting excellence spread to the Austrian Bundesliga.
Why the Austrian Bundesliga you are probably asking yourself – well because it only has twelve teams and that means it is far easier to scoop an accumulator with all six of the matches that take place each weekend (than opposed to ten in Europe’s major leagues and eight in Russia)
This means ‘AutBot’ doesn’t have to work as hard to return a hefty profit, although this does come with the caveat that less matches on offer, will return less odds (that is unless you are betting for the outsider each time)
How Did ‘AutBot’ Do?
Now we know why the Austrian Bundesliga has been plumped for (of course, by the same logic I could have opted for the Scottish Premiership) let’s have a look at what was offered up in terms of predictions:
Now I went for a spend of 1 unit – which in this case was a pound and at odds of 54/1, that would have returned £55. I say would have because low and behold, the shock of the week came in Salzburg, as Red Bull were held to a rather surprise draw by SKN St.Poelten.
Which means for me personally, ‘AutBot’ returned five out of six correct picks – a hit rate of 83.3% in the opening week, good but because I went all in and not line by line, it was not good enough. That said, there is a twist in the tale.
That’s because one of the readers actually took my tips on board, but opted against backing RB Salzburg because the odds were too thin. Well for him, that was an incredibly smart decision, because the other five came in at 48/1 and that means, we have our first BIG WINNER!!
This is even more impressive when you consider that Hartberg finished their fixture at home to Altach with only 10 men. That said a win, is very much a win and that point, all that was needed was Rapid Wien and Sturm Graz to cancel each other out.
That proved to be the exact case and although it was commiserations for me, there was celebrations for one reader and deservedly so. While the fact that RB Salzburg drew is arguably a lesson for us all, if the home banker is very poor value = just avoid.
From a financial stand point, I am £1 down but I think I can just about absorb that in my day to day life but the 83.3% hit rate, is something we can definitely work with and therefore, I will serve up another round of predictions later in the weekend.
Not only that, but we will need to test if ‘AutBot’ was not just the recipient of a huge amount of beginners luck in the first week of its operation and therefore, I will make no changes to the model whatsoever. The pressure is now on!
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.