A Spanish Bonus

A Spanish Bonus

A Spanish Bonus

If you read my previous article, you will know that the pursuit of data driven betting excellence has once again taken me to Germany and with another raft of Bundesliga bets now placed, it is time to offer up an additional set of picks this week.

An additional set that takes me to the somewhat sunnier climbs of Spain and although I may have missed last night’s Seville derby, I still have another nine games for ‘LaLigaBot’ to work on and serve up some data driven football predictions.


With my varying levels of success being well documented in terms of Bundesliga bets, I have decided due to part laziness and part a sense that it has worked to a certain degree in Germany, that the model logic will be exactly the same.

Therefore the mechanics of what is being built for the German top flight, will also be the driver for what hopefully happens in Spain and although success in one, does not necessarily indicate success in the other, we can at least hope that is the case.

With that in mind, lets first take a look at the home/away form guide, for the nine remaining La Liga fixtures that are taking place over the rest of the weekend – although we can read too much into this remains to be seen.

A Spanish Bonus

Eagle eyed viewers will be aware that there is a sizeable amount of dominance in terms of home form (last six)  versus away from (last six) and any usual circumstances, they would be clear favourites to pick up all three points.

However, if we can take anything from the Bundesliga, its that home advantage has been rather nullified as of late and therefore, we may not be able to lean on this as concept much as we would like to.

On the flipside, La Liga does have some rather hyper dominate sides and when you consider Real Madrid and Barcelona’s fixtures do look something of a doozy ‘LaLigaBot’ should be getting at least two data driven football predictions correct.

Which means without giving anything anyway, lets have a look at what it has served up in terms of picks:

A Spanish Bonus

Unsurprisingly the duoploy of Barcelona and Real Madrid are out of the that, but more interestingly even though the teams at home are supposedly in ‘better form’ there are a number of away picks , Getafe and Deportivo Alaves seemingly bucking the trend here.

In all honesty, this does seem a bit of a cold set of picks and although I’m not completely blind to La Liga, I haven’t watched much of it since it left Sky Sports in the Uk and has then bounced around subsequent television networks.

Therefore, in terms of this league, I don’t think I am going to do a week on week series, I think I’m just going to throw a quid or two at the nine-fold accumulator and see what happens at the end of the weekend.

While although any nine-fold may prove to be a fruitless exercise in terms of betting, there is another angle that we may be able to get something out of and that is the Over/Under 2.5 goals market, especially if we apply certain thresholds to the probability.

A Spanish Bonus

The Green games mean back Over 2.5
The Orange means approach with caution
The Red games mean back Under 2.5

This means that a six-fold data driven goals accumulator has presented itself and it is one that we hope lends itself to some goals this weekend (although perhaps not too many of them at the same time)

That’s your lot for this article, more of a data dump than pure science, but with reams of figures now coming back into life, there’s no reason why some fun cannot be attributed to it along the way at the same time.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan


If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud

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