A Second Test
A Second Test
If you read my previous article, you will be fully aware that the pursuit for data driven betting excellence has once again begun and with the Premier League springing back into life, it has provided me with fertile ground to play on.
Ground that does not lend itself to the function of number crunching just yet and with a miniscule amount of form to work with (for this season at least), the approach for the first weeks of the season is nothing more than gut instinct.
An instinct that saw me return 5 correct picks out of possible 8 last weekend and to further test the concept of heart over heard, I also asked for a random set of selections on social media, of which that kind person served up 6 out of 8 picks.
THE TRUE TEST
After putting 1 currency unit on both set of octopicks, I was 3 and 2 results away respectively from a win with the bookmakers. Something that suggests that gut instinct on the opening weekend was good but not great.
Undeterred by that though, it is time to do it all over again and with a first full schedule of the season, it is time to serve up my 10 gut instinct picks for week two of this Premier League campaign – a list that looks as follows:
Everton
Leeds
Manchester United
Arsenal
Southampton/Tottenham Draw
Newcastle
Liverpool
Leicester
Aston Villa
Manchester City
DRAW A PICTURE
Looking back at last weekend’s result, it was interesting to see that there were no draws in any of the 8 fixtures and I’m hoping that trend carries over to this week, as I’ve gone for just a solitary draw between Southampton and Tottenham.
While should all of these get over the line, 1 currency unit will be turned into 603.
Of course, it is not just my gut instinct we are testing, but also that of general public and these are the picks that have been served up this weekend:
Everton
Leeds
Manchester United
Arsenal
Tottenham
Newcaslte/Brighton Draw
Chelsea/Liverpool Draw
Leicester
Aston Villa/Sheffield United Draw
Manchester City
A combination of results that if this gets over the line, would turn 1 currency unit into 901.
This selection is more draw heavy (not that there is anything wrong with that) and another thing to take into consideration, is that this random selection is from a different person than the week before – if only to avoid it just becoming a straight competition between me and one other.
AGAINST THE GRAIN
Last week we found out that 5 of the 8 matches followed the bookmaker odds before hand and the more we know about this, the more we can begin to shape predictive modelling later on – because it stands to reason that the favourites will not always win each week.
Therefore, if we know that say 60 or 70% of matches will follow the form guide, we can know where to allow for some red herrings each week and try to build an extra layer of intelligence to our good friend “PremBot”, as we aim for a multitude of correct data driven football predictions.
With that in mind, here are the odds for this extended weekend:
| Tomorrow, 19 Sep | 1 | X | 2 | B’s | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | Everton – West Brom | -185 | +334 | +542 | 13 | |
| 14:00 | Leeds – Fulham | -154 | +299 | +457 | 13 | |
| 16:30 | Manchester Utd – Crystal Palace | -323 | +468 | +877 | 13 | |
| 19:00 | Arsenal – West Ham | -189 | +355 | +511 | 12 | |
| 20 Sep 2020 | 1 | X | 2 | B’s | ||
| 11:00 | Southampton – Tottenham | +212 | +236 | +139 | 13 | |
| 13:00 | Newcastle – Brighton | +167 | +218 | +188 | 13 | |
| 15:30 | Chelsea – Liverpool | +220 | +277 | +118 | 13 | |
| 18:00 | Leicester – Burnley | -159 | +304 | +471 | 13 | |
| 21 Sep 2020 | 1 | X | 2 | B’s | ||
| 17:00 | Aston Villa – Sheffield Utd | +174 | +223 | +175 | 13 | |
| 19:15 | Wolves – Manchester City | +515 | +338 | -182 | 13 | |
And what is interesting to know here, is that I’ve followed the bookmakers on 9 out of the 10 occasions, the only difference is the draw and in no other instance have I selected a non-favourite to win. Subconcious bias perhaps?
Anyway that is your lot for this particular article, now it is time to sit back and watch the goals and hopefully the money come in.
Happy punting and thanks for reading.
(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)
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