A Premier Quartet
A Premier Quartet
In my previous article, I returned to league wide modelling and althoiugh my attempts at trying to crack the English Premier League have been rather futile as of late, there is one project that has turned in some data driven betting success.
Which means in this article, it is time to return to the tried and tested Over/Under market and offer up another raft of data driven football predictions. Something that looks a little like the list below (it actually is the list below)
| League | Home | Away | Over 2.5 | Over 2.5 Prediction |
| Premier League | Everton | Crystal Palace | 38.00% | Under 2.5 |
| Premier League | Brighton | Watford | 48.00% | Ignore |
| Premier League | Sheffield United | Bournemouth | 38.00% | Under 2.5 |
| Premier League | Man City | West Ham | 66.00% | Over 2.5 |
This probabbility method has been tested on 56 matches so far (not every game per week as some are too close to call) and of those 56 recommended bets, 40 of them have been correct as over/under 2.5 goals (71.42% success rate)
With just a quartet of matches taking place this weekend, there is not a lot to work with but there is still enough and as you can see, it might be one of the easiest set of matches to hang your hat on.
Manchester City vs West Ham has an incredibly high probability of Over 2.5, although the odds will be low because if it, While the games at Everton and Sheffield United are clear enough to be in the Under 2.5 threshold.
Brighton vs Watford could go either way and is probably a bit too close to call – although if you really want to have a crack at it, then it is leaning towards Under 2.5 and staying on that side of the goal scoring fence, you might just want to be mindful of Everton.
Everton’s average goals over the last six matches have increased compared to the six before that and although they have a low probability, you may want to take into account the recency of results under Carlo Ancelotti.
However, with Crystal Palace being as bad as they have been lately and especially with them being away from home. Under 2.5 goals looks the direction to go and therefore I will stick with the intial offering from ‘GoalBot’.
Feel free to use the above info at your own leisure (and risk I must add) but if you do fingers crossed and more importantly if you have a winner, then don’t forget to send your slips through to the winners enclosure.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at [email protected]. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud