A Euro Score

A Euro Score

In my previous article,.I served up a whole list of goal probability in order to help you make better data driven betting decision and because there’s not a great deal of English Football on this weekend (from a league point of view), it is time to once again turn my attention to the continent.

In this article, I am going to provide a table of BTTS outcomes and how they rank in the matches that are taking place this weekend across the other four major European leagues (the English Premier League obviously making up the the rest of the ‘Big Five’)

WHO IS TOP OF THE TABLE

Home	Away	Home Team BTTS	Away Tean BTTS	Combined
Valencia	Barcelona	15	12	27
Fiorentina	Genoa	13	14	27
Inter	Cagliari	13	14	27
Napoli	Juventus	13	14	27
Ein Frankfurt	RB Leipzig	13	14	27
Osasuna	Levante	12	13	25
Spal	Bologna	9	16	25
Nice	Rennes	15	10	25
Getafe	Betis	8	16	24
Torino	Atalanta	10	14	24
Sampdoria	Sassuolo	10	14	24
Roma	Lazio	12	12	24
Brest	Amiens	9	15	24
Freiburg	Paderborn	12	12	24
Werder Bremen	Hoffenheim	13	11	24
Alaves	Villarreal	9	14	23
Verona	Lecce	10	13	23
Union Berlin	Augsburg	10	13	23
Bayern Munich	Schalke 04	12	11	23
Sociedad	Mallorca	13	9	22
Dortmund	FC Koln	11	10	21
M’gladbach	Mainz	10	11	21
Lyon	Toulouse	9	11	20
Celta	Eibar	11	8	19
Brescia	Milan	10	9	19
Marseille	Angers	11	8	19
Monaco	Strasbourg	12	7	19
Leverkusen	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	10	19
Espanol	Ath Bilbao	10	8	18
Ath Madrid	Leganes	8	10	18
Parma	Udinese	10	8	18
Montpellier	Dijon	10	8	18
Nantes	Bordeaux	7	11	18
Wolfsburg	Hertha	9	9	18
Sevilla	Granada	10	7	17
Valladolid	Real Madrid	8	9	17
St Etienne	Nimes	10	7	17
Lille	Paris SG	9	8	17
Reims	Metz	6	9	15

To break down the data, it is simply the corresponding fixture that is taking place this week – the amount of times the home team has played a game ending in BTTS and then added to the away team, from there they are then ranked in numerical order from top to bottom.

Which means the matches at the sharper end of the list will have a far greater chance of ending in BTTS. However, there is also one way to look at this and that is the balance between the Home vs Away teams in terms of outcome.

For example what if they were ranked like this instead:

Home	Away	Home Team BTTS	Away Tean BTTS	Difference
Nice	Rennes	15	10	5
Monaco	Strasbourg	12	7	5
Sociedad	Mallorca	13	9	4
Valencia	Barcelona	15	12	3
Celta	Eibar	11	8	3
Marseille	Angers	11	8	3
Sevilla	Granada	10	7	3
St Etienne	Nimes	10	7	3
Werder Bremen	Hoffenheim	13	11	2
Espanol	Ath Bilbao	10	8	2
Parma	Udinese	10	8	2
Montpellier	Dijon	10	8	2
Bayern Munich	Schalke 04	12	11	1
Dortmund	FC Koln	11	10	1
Brescia	Milan	10	9	1
Lille	Paris SG	9	8	1
Roma	Lazio	12	12	0
Freiburg	Paderborn	12	12	0
Wolfsburg	Hertha	9	9	0
Fiorentina	Genoa	13	14	-1
Inter	Cagliari	13	14	-1
Napoli	Juventus	13	14	-1
Ein Frankfurt	RB Leipzig	13	14	-1
Osasuna	Levante	12	13	-1
M’gladbach	Mainz	10	11	-1
Leverkusen	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	10	-1
Valladolid	Real Madrid	8	9	-1
Lyon	Toulouse	9	11	-2
Ath Madrid	Leganes	8	10	-2
Verona	Lecce	10	13	-3
Union Berlin	Augsburg	10	13	-3
Reims	Metz	6	9	-3
Torino	Atalanta	10	14	-4
Sampdoria	Sassuolo	10	14	-4
Nantes	Bordeaux	7	11	-4
Alaves	Villarreal	9	14	-5
Brest	Amiens	9	15	-6
Spal	Bologna	9	16	-7
Getafe	Betis	8	16	-8

While instead of looking at the top of the table, we looked at the middle range instead because that is where both teams facing off against each seem to balance each other out in terms of ending up in a BTTS outcome.

WHY HAVE WE DONE THIS?

Let’s take the polar opposits of our second table, with Nice vs Rennes at the top at Getafe and Betis at the bottom. Yes they have a high combined BTTS tally, but they are not sharing the load to speak and that means Getatfe and Rennes in particular might not pull their respective weight.

Therefore if we look to the centre of the second table where the range of numbers is between positive 1 and negative 1, it means that there is a greater balance in goal scoring output and leaking goals at the other end.

But with that said, we do not necessarily want to look at all the gamesw within this range either as same defences seem a lot more leaky than others and if we look at information above, we can make some data driven decisions.

SUB ZERO

Let’s take the three matches were the difference is 0, a trio that is as follows:

Roma	Lazio	12	12
Freiburg	Paderborn	12	12
Wolfsburg	Hertha	9	9

Yes they all balance each other out in terms of BTTS outcomes, but if Wolfsburg and Hertha only on nine each compared to the German counterparts and the teams competing in the Rome Derby this weekend, you would not be in a race to back goals in the home of Volkswagen.

Therefore looking at the central band of matches, we should be looking within this range of fixtures:

Bayern Munich	Schalke 04	12	11	1
Dortmund	FC Koln	11	10	1
Brescia	Milan	10	9	1
Lille	Paris SG	9	8	1
Roma	Lazio	12	12	0
Freiburg	Paderborn	12	12	0
Wolfsburg	Hertha	9	9	0
Fiorentina	Genoa	13	14	-1
Inter	Cagliari	13	14	-1
Napoli	Juventus	13	14	-1
Ein Frankfurt	RB Leipzig	13	14	-1
Osasuna	Levante	12	13	-1
M’gladbach	Mainz	10	11	-1
Leverkusen	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	10	-1
Valladolid	Real Madrid	8	9	-1

And from here, I would be looking at the games that have a negative 1 ranking as they seem to be the most ripe for BTTS outcomes – although I would probably rule the matches at Leverkusen and Valladolid.

Again feel free to use this information anyway you see fit, to try to make some data driven football predictions and as always if you do get a winner or two, then send over your betting slips and I can add them to the winners enclosure

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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