Without Bias

Without Bias

If you read the previous offering in this series, you would have seen that ‘StatBot’ delivered a second week of profit and although the return was not as handsome as the opening week, as a certain supermarket once said ‘Every Little Helps’

Ultimately with any series such as this, all profit is good profit but how much profit is worthwhile for the time and ‘expertise’ that will be put into it. Ultimately it’s not about making ‘x’ amount, it is more about making a model and being able to export that across a number of different leagues.

If and when I ever reach that promised land, then the residual income becomes a whole lot larger and from there it can be scaled up even further. That however is just a pipe dream at this stage and with it being the international break, this is what they call the perfect filler article.

Which means I can answer a question that someone asked me on LinkedIn, one that was as follows:

Out of interest, why have you chosen the Russian Premier League?

An interesting question and one that has a two fold answer:

  1. With only eight matches per week, it means slightly less outlay in terms of units and only slightly less legwork to do – that and I’m looking for an 8-fold ultimate win, rather than a 10-fold.
  2. While the bigger and perhaps more important reason, is that by using a league in which I have only what I would call a surface knowledge, it means I am using the logic and theory of modelling and not being influenced by previous bias.

Without Bias

For example if this was a project on the English Premier League instead, I and anyone else would have far greater biases on teams and therefore your thoughts of who might win in any given week may be skewed.

You only have to look at the last few weeks to see how the notion of the ‘Big Six’ is starting to fall apart and if you used that bias, then defeats such as the ones that Tottenham and Manchester United suffered would have caused you a lot of financial heartache.

Therefore my logic in this is to take the emotion out of the predictions and just treat it all as more of an analytical exercise, rather than one that relies on too much hope on a certain team getting the better of another.

For this to work ‘StatBot’ is going to have to be cold and merciless – almost like the old Soviet Union itself and that in a nutshell is why I have opted to plan this around the Russian Premier League rather than the English one.

 

Happy punting and thanks for reading, Dan.

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

Follow me on Facebook at Dan The Stat Man
You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud


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