The Twelfth Night

The Twelfth Night

If you read my previous article, you will know that another weekly mop up has taken place and with another raft of Premier League action just around the corner, the pursuit for data driven betting excellence continues.

Orange – The Hottest Form In The Division
Blue – The Coldest
Green – Best Per Game

Which means, with those stats being presented, here is what “PremBot” has to offer last week – 5 out of 9 was the performance in Week 11, what can be done this time around?

A little bit off the beaten curve and four different selections compared to my gut instinct, so its good that there’s the ability to compare and contrast. While if all of these 10 were to get over the line, the odds would be 3454/1. Not as outrageous as some previous offering, but chunky all the same.

Of course, with “PremBot Jr” also in the mix, it is time to see what his picks have served up.

SPOT THE DIFFERENCE

Now, here’s an interesting point and the fact, that all the outcomes are the same. Which does not offer us the ability to properly compare and contrast. Although we can ask as to why exactly this has happened.

The simple reason is that even with a lessening of league position comparison in the second model, it does nothing to change the overall outcomes and therefore, instead of fully backing the model again, I am going to place just have the usual stake but still run all 10 matches as normal.

WHERE’S THE MONEY

Which means, what to do with the other half a stake unit and with this going spare, I am going to use the original form guide as a data driven prediction tool, which means there is another 10-fold for fun which looks like this:

West Ham
Wolves
Newcastle
Manchester United
Chelsea
Southampton
Tottenham
Liverpool
Burnley
Leicester

If this one comes in, it is odds of 2,590/1 – lying somewhere in between the two predictive models and the only difference here is Burnley getting the better of the Emirates on Sunday night.

A LOOK AT THE BOOK

I refefenced earlier that my gut instinct picks are likely to be in tune with what the bookmakers are saying and lets now see if that actually is the case or not:

Tomorrow, 11 Dec			1	X	2	B’s
20:00	Leeds – West Ham		5/4	67/25	211/100	14
12 Dec 2020			1	X	2	B’s
12:30	Wolves – Aston Villa		33/25	229/100	23/10	14
15:00	Newcastle – West Brom		61/50	119/50	62/25	13
17:30	Manchester Utd – Manchester City		67/20	78/25	77/100	14
20:00	Everton – Chelsea		81/25	153/50	4/5	14
13 Dec 2020			1	X	2	B’s
12:00	Southampton – Sheffield Utd		3/4	279/100	197/50	14
14:15	Crystal Palace – Tottenham		93/25	14/5	39/50	14
16:30	Fulham – Liverpool		381/50	237/50	17/50	14
19:15	Arsenal – Burnley		14/25	321/100	269/50	14
19:15	Leicester – Brighton		26/25	63/25	139/50	14
15 Dec 2020			1	X	2	B’s
18:00	Wolves – Chelsea		96/25	139/50	3/4	12
20:00	Manchester City – West Brom		11/100	181/20	2333/100	12

And as first thought, apart from the draw at Molineux which is different, I have picked the pre-match favourite in the other nine matches. However, we know that such a run of form following results never really happenes and therefore, I could be on something of a hiding to nothing.

To provide a bit more context, lets look at the 1×2 split in terms of Premier League results:

HW	40	37.38%
AW	47	43.93%
DRAW	20	18.69%
TOTAL	107	100.00%

As you can see, wins on the road are still the dominant force in all of this and with the data driven predictive models opting for four more this week, that is prettu much in line with what the overall breakdown is saying.

A breakdown that give or take is like this:

4 Home Wins
4 Away Wins
2 Draws

Whereas my models are saying:

5 Home Wins
4 Away Wins
1 Draws

So we will see if the margin of error here is something that works in our favour or not and we’ll only know if it works by Monday as then its another round of fixtures to follow, so things are going to get very busy now.