The Probability Factor

The Probability Factor

The Probability Factor

Last week I announced that business had been scaled up and that meant that the major European Leagues had been included in my weekly analysis, something that opens up new levels of data driven betting.

While it is data that is the order of then morning once again, as I have another whole batch of European Over 2.5 goal probability for you to mull over and this time it includes France’s Ligue 1 as well.

Therefore without a further ado, here are the 39 games in the list (apologies if the Friday night games are still in there, full dislosure it is too much hassle to remove them)

Home Away Over 2.5
Ein Frankfurt RB Leipzig 80.56%
Bayern Munich Schalke 04 75.00%
Dortmund FC Koln 75.00%
Werder Bremen Hoffenheim 72.22%
M’gladbach Mainz 72.22%
Torino Atalanta 70.00%
Roma Lazio 69.47%
Freiburg Paderborn 66.67%
Sampdoria Sassuolo 65.00%
Inter Cagliari 62.50%
Fiorentina Genoa 62.50%
Union Berlin Augsburg 61.11%
Leverkusen Fortuna Dusseldorf 61.11%
Napoli Juventus 60.00%
Lyon Toulouse 57.50%
Valencia Barcelona 57.50%
Alaves Villarreal 57.50%
Monaco Strasbourg 57.50%
Sociedad Mallorca 57.50%
Brescia Milan 55.00%
Brest Amiens 55.00%
Lille Paris SG 55.00%
Wolfsburg Hertha 52.78%
Getafe Betis 52.50%
Spal Bologna 52.50%
Nice Rennes 52.50%
Osasuna Levante 52.50%
St Etienne Nimes 50.00%
Verona Lecce 48.42%
Parma Udinese 47.50%
Marseille Angers 45.00%
Celta Eibar 42.50%
Montpellier Dijon 42.50%
Valladolid Real Madrid 37.50%
Nantes Bordeaux 37.50%
Espanol Ath Bilbao 35.00%
Sevilla Granada 35.00%
Ath Madrid Leganes 32.50%
Reims Metz 22.50%

To make things slightly easier and mobile friendly, I have removed the league and the key required just to make things a little narrower. However, if you are a fan of major European football, then you should have an idea of which teams play in which leagues.

While you might not be aware of the thresholds required for Over/Under and therefore they are as follows:

Over 55% – Bet on Over 2.5
45 – 54.99% -Too Close To Call
Under 45% – Bet on Under 2.5

It does seem as the German Bundesliga is a competition that lends itself to plenty of goals, although you would want to go with a Deutsche heavy accumulator is up to you, while looking at the lower end of the league it looks like less goals are on the French and Spanish menu’s.

While had the list been published last night and you backed Borussia Dortmund vs Koln as Over 2.5, you would have come good – as it ended in a 5-1 victory for the hosts, still we’ve missed that boat, so no point celebrating something that’s already happened.

As before, there is a whole host of information above, so please feel free to use as a probability guide for your Over/Under bets this weekend and if you do back a winner or two, make you send it to the winners enclosure.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud


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