The Hot Octagon
The Hot Octagon
If you read my previous article on the topic of data driven betting excellence, I looked at the procedure from a slightly different angle and it is one that saw me put the ability of my modelling (not fashion) up against the gut instinct of somebody else (my brother)
Thankfully though in this offering, it is time to return to pure data and with that in mind, I am going to offer up another ‘Hot 8’ one that looks something like this:
FRESH OUT OF THE OVEN
| Level | League | Home | Away | Status | Combined Over 2.5 | Over 2.5 Prediction |
| 1 | Premier League | Leicester | Man City | Team | 71.15% | Over 2.5 |
| 1 | Premier League | Southampton | Aston Villa | Team | 69.23% | Over 2.5 |
| 1 | Premier League | Chelsea | Tottenham | Team | 61.54% | Over 2.5 |
| 1 | Premier League | Liverpool | West Ham | Team | 57.69% | Over 2.5 |
| 1 | Premier League | Burnley | Bournemouth | Team | 57.69% | Over 2.5 |
| 2 | Championship | Charlton | Luton | Team | 68.18% | Over 2.5 |
| 3 | League One | AFC Wimbledon | Blackpool | Team | 57.92% | Over 2.5 |
| 5 | National Lge | Chesterfield | Ebbsfleet | Team | 63.24% | Over 2.5 |
As you can see it is quite Premier League heavy, so there’s no reason why you could not necessarily opt for a quintet of top flight data driven football predictions. However, if you were to do that, you may end up over looking two higher percentages in both the Championship and National Lge.
The ‘Hot 8’ have been listed in league order, but just to provide a bit more here they are in percentage order:
| Level | League | Home | Away | Status | Combined Over 2.5 | Over 2.5 Prediction |
| 1 | Premier League | Leicester | Man City | Team | 71.15% | Over 2.5 |
| 1 | Premier League | Southampton | Aston Villa | Team | 69.23% | Over 2.5 |
| 2 | Championship | Charlton | Luton | Team | 68.18% | Over 2.5 |
| 5 | National Lge | Chesterfield | Ebbsfleet | Team | 63.24% | Over 2.5 |
| 1 | Premier League | Chelsea | Tottenham | Team | 61.54% | Over 2.5 |
| 3 | League One | AFC Wimbledon | Blackpool | Team | 57.92% | Over 2.5 |
| 1 | Premier League | Liverpool | West Ham | Team | 57.69% | Over 2.5 |
| 1 | Premier League | Burnley | Bournemouth | Team | 57.69% | Over 2.5 |
Now, whether you want to go for all eight in terms of an accumulator is up to you (I think four/five is your target area in all fairness) and remember this is a purely data driven list, working off of probability.
This probability is generated by the previous outcomes that have happened this season, therefore the more occasions a team has been in an over 2.5 goal game, the greater probability of it happening this weeknd.
With that spelt out for you, if you want to look even further down the hot list – here are four more matches for your consideration:
| Championship | Stoke | Cardiff | Team | 57.58% | Over 2.5 |
| National Lge | Boreham Wood | Yeovil | Team | 56.07% | Over 2.5 |
| Premier League | Arsenal | Everton | Team | 51.92% | Over 2.5 |
| League Two | Leyton Orient | Oldham | Team | 51.47% | Over 2.5 |
Which means a hot eight has turned into a dirty dozen and if you do use any of this data and manage to earn yourself a winner, please send in your betting slips to the winners’ enclosure.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud