The Fourth Leg

The Fourth Leg

The Fourth Leg

If you read my previous article, you will know that it was a tough week of in terms of gut instinct picks. A sentiment that could be said for both me and the bookmakers and with the hunt for data driven betting excellence picking up pack, it is now time to lay the ground work for week four of this new Premier League season.

A QUICK RECAP

After three weeks of the new season, 28 matches have been contested and here is how the league table of sorts stacks up:

Bookmakers – 60.7% correct (17/28)
Gut Instinct – 57.1% correct (16/28)
Social Media – 53.5% correct (15/28)

All three components of this project thus far are in near distance of each other and although we’re not quite displaying an iron gut in terms of instinct, there is a feeling that this method could end up being stronger than data driven football predictions.

Of course, we kind of what data driven football predictions to be our eventual bread and butter, so although a relative display of sporting nous has been displayed thus far, soon this will all be transferred to spreadsheets and the like.

After returning just four correct picks out of ten last week, it was definitely a couple of days for the coupon busters and therefore, one hopes that we can pick things up again over the course of this Saturday and Sunday.

To do so, the target is going to have to be at least five and in all honesty more than six, otherwise we are getting to the point where there is a 50/50 probability of me picking the correct outcome or not. A percentage we want to be far clear from.

While to do this, we are going to need another raft of picks from myself and the random nature of ‘social media’ which means my picks look a little something like this:

Chelsea
Everton
Draw (Leeds vs Manchester City)
Draw (Newcastle vs Burnley)
Leicester
Southampton
Arsenal
Wolves
Draw (Manchester United vs Tottenham)
Liverpool

A 10-fold that turns 1 currency unit into 1,485 and this is largely because I’ve opted for three draws. Which also means I’m hoping for more in a single game week, than what has actually happened in the season so far. This will be the longest odds to date, although that comes with selecting more draws.

Lets see, how these picks compare to that of the random social media set and they look as so:

Chelsea
Everton
Draw (Leeds vs Manchester City)
Draw (Newcastle vs Burnley)
Leicester
Southampton
Arsenal
Wolves
Tottenham
Liverpool

A nearly identical set to what I’ve gone except that this set has opted for Tottenham to win at Manchester United and because of this, the odds have gone out to 1,584 – because a Spurs away win is priced longer than the Old Trafford draw.

This neat symmetry suggests a near match in terms of success rate or the crashing and burning together – fingers crossed it is the former and with these picks now locked in, it is time to see how the fare against the bookmakers themselves:

WHAT ARE THE BOOKIES SAYING

Tomorrow, 03 Oct 1 X 2 B’s
11:30 Chelsea – Crystal Palace  -227 +378 +642 13
14:00 Everton – Brighton  -120 +261 +363 13
16:30 Leeds – Manchester City  +661 +438 -256 13
19:00 Newcastle – Burnley  +149 +218 +211 13
04 Oct 2020 1 X 2 B’s
11:00 Leicester – West Ham  -145 +315 +391 13
11:00 Southampton – West Brom  -130 +289 +362 13
13:00 Arsenal – Sheffield Utd  -179 +313 +544 13
13:00 Wolves – Fulham  -192 +309 +630 13
15:30 Manchester Utd – Tottenham  -106 +274 +296 13
18:15 Aston Villa – Liverpool  +868 +446 -303 13

Happy punting and thanks for reading.

In relation to my picks vs the bookmakers, I have followed their lead except the three draws. Apart from this the seven matches where I think there will be the winner, have the same seven predictions as above.

Looking at the ‘league table’ at the start of the article, we know that the bookmakers get it right 60% of the time – although they never really tend to opt for a draw and because this, the percentage might be skewed slightly.

However, this is the only thing I can work with and this is what I will use to compare against. Knowing this, I’m also hoping that where the bookmakers get it wrong this week, are in the matches in which I’ve selected the draws. That there would be the beating of the bookies.

Something that if a 10-fold is going to get over the line, this is exactly what will be needed and if we keep everyone crossed when I return at the start of next weekend. This is exactly what will have happened.

Happy punting and thanks for reading.

(THESE ARE NOT TIPS PER SE, THESE ARE JUST DATA DRIVEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS IN A PURE TEST AND LEARN MODELLING CAPACITY)


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