The Famous Five
The Famous Five
If you read my previous article, you will know that my approach to data driven betting to took something of a left turn before Christmas and although it had a relatively decent return in terms of correct picks, it failed to return anything (or nothing) in the way of profit.
That was due to going with a Super Goliath bet and not getting the required amount of winning bets to reach the positive threshold and therefore with that experiment out of the way, it is time to go back to basics.
Which means it is once again time to focus on an accumulator and instead of the eight games that were served up beforehand, it is perhaps time to scale it down a bit and give ourselves a slightly better chance of getting an overall win. With that in mind, I present to you the famous five.
A QUINTESSENTIAL QUINTET
This exactly the same concept as the ‘Hot 8’ three weeks ago, but this time around I am serving up five picks in a straight accumulator. It’s win or bust, no second chances, no insurance, everything has to get over the line.
The odds of this five fold is 10/1, which I don’t thinlk is too bad value for the work that has to be done in order to get it. Yes I could have stuck more matches on, but then we arguably tip the balance in the direction of the bookmakers and that is the last thing we want to do.
My only concern and not just because I’m a Tottenham fan is the fact that Jose Mourinho might look at the Liverpool game as an opportunity to be really pragmatic and park the bus, especially with Harry Kane now being out injured until April.
That said, they do have a propensity to clean sheets at the moment and that’s before you consider Liverpool’s attacking threat, therefore we will leave it as part of the selection and hope that Tottenham win 3-0 (no laughing at the back)
NO NATIONAL LEAGUE?
There’s no Vanarama National League action this weekend, which means slightly less games to analyse overall. Not only that, but this competition has been pretty ripe in terms of goals as of late, so it’s a shame that we cannot call upon this level of fixtures.
However, there are still four divisions above them and there is plenty of data that can be utilised and it is a data driven approach that we are settling for this weekend. With that said, there’s not a lot else to say apart from sitting back and waiting for the goals to come in.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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