The Dirty Half Dozen
The Dirty Half Dozen
If you read my previous article on this topic, you will know that there has been a small hiatus on trying to use a data driven betting approach to the English Premier League Over 2.5 market, but thankfully this weekend we are back.
After 36 games recommended bets, the predictive model ‘GoalBot’ has managed to return 27 correct picks and that equates to a hit rate of 75%, something that suggests that there is at least something positive at work.
WHAT ARE RECOMMENDED BETS
If you are not a long time reader, you will want to know just what the logic is and more importantly what does the colour code below mean and thankfully I will explain why not all English Premier League fixtures are backed.
Looking at the 10 matches below, there is absolutely no reason as to why you couldn’t just follow the recommendations verbatim. However, that does carry a larger element of risk and because of that, I factor in a margin of error.
Which when you look below actually wipes out four of the games in the list below and therefore leaves us with a dirty half dozen of matches to digest this weekend.
To be fair, even a blind man would predict that Aston Villa vs Manchester City will end in Over 2.5 goals as 23 of the last 28 combined games between the two teams have ended in this particular outcome.
While Southampton will be hoping that there is not a repeat of the nine goal mauling that they suffered at the hands of Leicester at St Mary’s – although that said, if they concede just three that would be really handy.
If we take those six games in question and look at what the odds would be for the six-fold, it would be a hefty 22/1. While if most of you read this article on Saturday morning and we remove the Sheffield United vs West Ham game, the odds lessen to a still tempting 12/1.
Personally I am going to look at this just from a percentage hit rate and therefore to keep the 75% threshold going that I currently have, I am going to need five of the six matches to come good., anything less and that will take some form of hit.
This means that come the end of this weekend, 42 recommended matches would have been put forward. The question is just how many of these, will be correct. An answer will find out by the time Aston Villa and Manchester City finish up on Sunday.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.