Sharing The Burden
Sharing The Burden
In a previous article, I focused on football with a more continental flavour and it is to all things Europe that I am going to focus on this time around, as I once again attempt to highlight a bundle of both teams to score matches via data driven betting methods.
As before, I am going to offer up a table of all the matches across the other four major leagues (the English Premier League has that annoying split week, so not a great deal to work with) and see if we can make some correct data driven football predictions.
Therefore without further ado, here are the 39 fixtures taking place across the continent and the amount of times that each team has ended in a game with a BTTS outcome and then the away value minus the home value.
| League | Home | Away | Home BTTS | Away BTTS | Combined |
| La Liga | Alaves | Eibar | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| La Liga | Levante | Leganes | 14 | 11 | 3 |
| La Liga | Getafe | Valencia | 8 | 15 | -7 |
| La Liga | Valladolid | Villarreal | 8 | 16 | -8 |
| La Liga | Ath Madrid | Granada | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| La Liga | Espanol | Mallorca | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| La Liga | Sociedad | Ath Bilbao | 14 | 9 | 5 |
| La Liga | Osasuna | Real Madrid | 13 | 9 | 4 |
| La Liga | Celta | Sevilla | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| La Liga | Betis | Barcelona | 17 | 13 | 4 |
| Serie A | Roma | Bologna | 14 | 18 | -4 |
| Serie A | Fiorentina | Atalanta | 13 | 15 | -2 |
| Serie A | Torino | Sampdoria | 10 | 11 | -1 |
| Serie A | Verona | Juventus | 11 | 15 | -4 |
| Serie A | Spal | Sassuolo | 11 | 15 | -4 |
| Serie A | Genoa | Cagliari | 15 | 16 | -1 |
| Serie A | Napoli | Lecce | 15 | 13 | 2 |
| Serie A | Brescia | Udinese | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| Serie A | Parma | Lazio | 11 | 14 | -3 |
| Serie A | Inter | Milan | 14 | 10 | 4 |
| Ligue 1 | Angers | Lille | 9 | 10 | -1 |
| Ligue 1 | Marseille | Toulouse | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Ligue 1 | Metz | Bordeaux | 10 | 11 | -1 |
| Ligue 1 | Amiens | Monaco | 16 | 14 | 2 |
| Ligue 1 | Nice | Nimes | 17 | 9 | 8 |
| Ligue 1 | Rennes | Brest | 12 | 10 | 2 |
| Ligue 1 | Dijon | Nantes | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Ligue 1 | Montpellier | St Etienne | 11 | 12 | -1 |
| Ligue 1 | Strasbourg | Reims | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Ligue 1 | Paris SG | Lyon | 8 | 10 | -2 |
| Bundesliga | Ein Frankfurt | Augsburg | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| Bundesliga | Werder Bremen | Union Berlin | 14 | 10 | 4 |
| Bundesliga | Hertha | Mainz | 10 | 13 | -3 |
| Bundesliga | Freiburg | Hoffenheim | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Bundesliga | Schalke 04 | Paderborn | 11 | 13 | -2 |
| Bundesliga | Wolfsburg | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Bundesliga | Leverkusen | Dortmund | 10 | 12 | -2 |
| Bundesliga | M’gladbach | FC Koln | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| Bundesliga | Bayern Munich | RB Leipzig | 13 | 15 | -2 |
With it being listed league by league as above, there doesn’t seem to be any real context to the data and more importantly, it lends itself to the question of what we are actually looking for. Do we want teams with a high BTTS ranking, do we want both or do we want a high value in the final column.
Ideally what we want are two teams who have both finished with BTTS in some regularity and then they either cancel each other out in terms of difference, or there is a swing of just one either positve or negative.
In doing this, we can then highlight which matches will lean more towards both teams having their goal breached at full time, in essence the two opponents will be sharing the burden of goals as it were.
So lets now rejig that table and rank the difference in BTTS values from top the bottom, something that looks like this:
| League | Home | Away | Home BTTS | Away BTTS | Combined |
| Ligue 1 | Nice | Nimes | 17 | 9 | 8 |
| La Liga | Sociedad | Ath Bilbao | 14 | 9 | 5 |
| La Liga | Betis | Barcelona | 17 | 13 | 4 |
| Serie A | Inter | Milan | 14 | 10 | 4 |
| Bundesliga | Werder Bremen | Union Berlin | 14 | 10 | 4 |
| La Liga | Osasuna | Real Madrid | 13 | 9 | 4 |
| La Liga | Levante | Leganes | 14 | 11 | 3 |
| La Liga | Espanol | Mallorca | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| Serie A | Brescia | Udinese | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| Ligue 1 | Amiens | Monaco | 16 | 14 | 2 |
| Serie A | Napoli | Lecce | 15 | 13 | 2 |
| Ligue 1 | Rennes | Brest | 12 | 10 | 2 |
| La Liga | Alaves | Eibar | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| Ligue 1 | Strasbourg | Reims | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Bundesliga | M’gladbach | FC Koln | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| Ligue 1 | Dijon | Nantes | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Bundesliga | Ein Frankfurt | Augsburg | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| Bundesliga | Freiburg | Hoffenheim | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| La Liga | Celta | Sevilla | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Ligue 1 | Marseille | Toulouse | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Bundesliga | Wolfsburg | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| La Liga | Ath Madrid | Granada | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Serie A | Genoa | Cagliari | 15 | 16 | -1 |
| Ligue 1 | Montpellier | St Etienne | 11 | 12 | -1 |
| Serie A | Torino | Sampdoria | 10 | 11 | -1 |
| Ligue 1 | Metz | Bordeaux | 10 | 11 | -1 |
| Ligue 1 | Angers | Lille | 9 | 10 | -1 |
| Serie A | Fiorentina | Atalanta | 13 | 15 | -2 |
| Bundesliga | Bayern Munich | RB Leipzig | 13 | 15 | -2 |
| Bundesliga | Schalke 04 | Paderborn | 11 | 13 | -2 |
| Bundesliga | Leverkusen | Dortmund | 10 | 12 | -2 |
| Ligue 1 | Paris SG | Lyon | 8 | 10 | -2 |
| Serie A | Parma | Lazio | 11 | 14 | -3 |
| Bundesliga | Hertha | Mainz | 10 | 13 | -3 |
| Serie A | Roma | Bologna | 14 | 18 | -4 |
| Serie A | Verona | Juventus | 11 | 15 | -4 |
| Serie A | Spal | Sassuolo | 11 | 15 | -4 |
| La Liga | Getafe | Valencia | 8 | 15 | -7 |
| La Liga | Valladolid | Villarreal | 8 | 16 | -8 |
In doing this, we now get a better idea of the games we should be avoiding and the games we should be highlighting. For example with Nice vs Nimes, the home team have played in 17 BTTS matches and the away team 9.
This means there is a huge disparity between the two clubs and it does make you question as to whether Nimes will be involved in another one this weekend, while the same goes for Valladolid (8 BTTS vs Villarreal (16 BTTS)
WHERE’S THE OPTIMIUM?
The games were both teams have played in the same number of matches in terms of BTTS are the optimum and we can shorten the above table, into this new section of data driven football predictions.
| Bundesliga | Ein Frankfurt | Augsburg | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| Bundesliga | Freiburg | Hoffenheim | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| La Liga | Celta | Sevilla | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Ligue 1 | Marseille | Toulouse | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Bundesliga | Wolfsburg | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| La Liga | Ath Madrid | Granada | 8 | 8 | 0 |
While even though Atletico Madrid and Granada cancel each other out, they have very low respective tallies and therefore this could point to either a very low scoring win or goalless draw between the two Spanish sides.
Therefore you are left with five matches above, that are arguably the optimum to choose from in terms of BTTS this weekend and if you fancy a Euro flutter, then these will be the quintet of matches for you.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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