Pushing For More

Pushing For More

Pushing For More

If you read one of my articles from last weekend, you will know that the quest for data driven betting perfection was one that has once again taken a step in the right direction and with another impressive showing in the English Premier League Over/Under 2.5 goals market, it is time for more of the same.

After testing 42 matches, 32 of them have come back as a correct pick of Over/Under and that means a 76.1% success rate thus far, which is an impressive return but the sample size could do with a bit an increase.

WHAT’S THE TARGET?

Ideally you would want this success rate to be 100%, but in fairness no betting methodlogy is going to be perfect (if it were, I wouldn’t be writing content such as this!) therefore if it can be in the 75-80% bracket after 100 games, then we now that the logic and the predictions are relatively sound.

Ok with the threshold set, it’s time to get down to the nitty gritty and reveal the six matches which are up as recommended on Over/Under 2.5 goals this weekend:

Pushing For More

Six Premier League matches have hit the threshold this week and whereas usually, you will see an orange middle sector of games to avoid, we may as well just deal with the games that you should cast your eye on.

IS SIX TOO BIG?

Some people in the past have used all the recommended bets in one given week and shoved them straight into an accumulator. While although more risk does equal more reward, it does make you wonder if a six-fold is too many.

Therefore it might make sense, to take four from the six and go for a four-fold this weekend and see what comes good. If I was to do that, I would probably opt for the following:

Burnley vs Leicester – Over 2.5
Brighton vs Aston Villa – Over 2.5
Man City vs Crystal Palace – Over 2.5
Arsenal vs Sheffield United – Under 2.5

However, that is just my recommendations of the recommendations, you are more than welcome to use the above in anyway you see fit and hopeflly your betting slip, is one that returns a profit at the end of the weekend.

For me, I will be tracking the percentage success rate once again and once the weekend’s action is complete, there will be 48 games in the sample. Which also means with six matches on offer, I am going to once again need five out of six correct to further increase the percentage of overall success.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud


3 Replies to “Pushing For More”

  1. Dan Tracey

    To be fair Paul, with the recommended four-fold – I was only a goal away from it being a winner (Brighton vs Aston Villa)
    I guess it all depends on how big you went on any accumulator.

  2. Paul Dolman-Darrall

    I went £50 on each of your five of your six selections, and £100 on your Burnley/Leicester choice.

    Didn’t back the Man City option as the odds were worse than your implied percentages.

    I only finished £17.76p down. So not the worse. Will try again next week 🙂

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