On Home Ground

On Home Ground

On Home Ground

If you read my previous article on trying to conquer the English Premier League via a data driven betting approach, you will know that my attempts at trying to build the ultimate predictive model have been stuck in the quicksand as of late.

The past two gameweeks have seen a mid-table return of five out of ten matches, which although is not an unmitigated disaster, it does suggest that there is still some work to be done and it is work that I will undertake this weekend.

That’s because in my quest to beat the bookmakers, I’m unleashing ‘PremBot’ once again and the predictions this week, have a hint of home advantage to them. A strategy that could work or could blow up in my face and I will explain why below.

First though, here are my predictions for this Premier League weekend:

On Home Ground

As you can see, there are no less than EIGHT home wins that have been predicted this weekend. Surely that cannot be right. In theory, probably not but what if I was to also show you the home vs away form guides also:

On Home Ground

As you can see here, the strength of the home teams far outweighs that of the away teams this weekend (with the exception of Manchester City at Arsenal) and therefore the predictions that have been served, don’t actually look as crazy as first thought.

Now for this to come good, those teams are going to have to make use of their home advantage and you do get the feeling, that eight home wins could end up being something of a freak week. Although, strange outcomes are not an alien concept.

Take the recent midweek schedule where there were no draws in any of the ten matches, that means there is scope for another indifferent pattern to take place and let’s be honest, there’s a better chance of eight home wins than eight away wins.

Of course, I’m trying to convince myself that this is going to get over the line and although there is an element of confidence (blind faith) it is Sunday which could provide something of an issue and for two good reasons.

  1. Teams who play in the Europa League, will this have a knock-on effect
  2. Big Duncan Ferguson

Looking at Wolves, they are on course to beat Tottenham (which of course is by no means outside the realms of possibility) although they have played on Thursday night and that could have an effect on their weekend performance.

Not only that but Tottenham’s early wretched away form, is perhaps skewing the prediction somewhat and especially when you consider that the Jose Mourinho effect is still looming large – is this a new manager bounce or actually a regression to the mean?

While there was certainly an element of bounce for Everton last weekend and they themselves go up against a side who were in Europa League duty on Thursday night, will this have a knock-on effect for Manchester United.

As things stand, these external factors have not been built in, if only because there is no more European football until February and I’m not sure how long or how much weight to put on a new manager installation.

Therefore, the model is going to primarily stay as it is, bar a small tweak on the home form – so that it is more in tune with the second of the infographics that I have displayed above and as before,  I will be testing the success rate only. Although you are more than welcome to play for cash.

In terms of the actual infograph itself, I plan to evolve the weekly Premier League at the start of next year and in doing so, it will allow me to display the match outcome/BTTS/Over or Under all in one image.

In doing so, it will save a bit of time for me, as I don’t need to do three times the work and more importantly, I can finally start to roll out the same logic to other leagues. So with that in mind, I bust get cracking!

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud


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