Normal Service Is Resumed

Normal Service Is Resumed

If you have read any of my recent previous articles, you will know that my approach to data driven betting is one that has been based on goals and although that is a path that I will continue to tread, one should not forget the genesis of this project.

That’s because back in October, ths project was built on forecasting match outcomes and although the Russian Premier League is on a long Winter hiatus, that does not mean we cannot use that logic elsewhere.

After focussing my attention mainly on the Over/Under market, it is now time to once again return to the English Premier League and another weekend of data driven predictions from my good friend ‘PremBot’

DUSTING OFF THE SHELVES

Using predictive modelling, I have had attempted to get the better of seven Premier League gameweeks and it must be said that the sucess rate has been mid-table at best, as from 70 matches – ‘PremBot’ has got only 45.7% of them correct.

A figure that perhaps suggests that on these occasions, gut-instinct would be a better route because let’s be honest you could not do all that worse. However, after a festive period rest, I am back ready and refreshed for another round of picks.

If you read the previous article in this series, you will know that I went for a rather high risk strategy and it was one that saw me put the whole house on a raft of home wins. Unfortunately, that strategy did not pay dividends as ‘PremBot’ return 3 out of the 10 matches that took place that weekend.

COULD DO BETTER

You could say in fairness, do a lot better and that is exactly what I set out to do over the course of this weekend and without further ado, here are the 10 picks that ‘PremBot’ has up his sleeve:

If you look at the form index, one thing that is incredibly interesting is the fact that we have the first ever fixture where the two teams have cancelled each other out and they have an idential record, which obviously means according to the model, the game will end in a draw.

The game in question is Bournemouth vs Watford and when you consider the opposing trajectories that the two clubs are currently in, then a draw might even end being a difficult task for the struggling Cherries.

NEW MANAGER BOUNCES

If Tottenham had one under Jose Mourinho that really has dissipated and therefore the attention now moves over to their London counterparts Arsenal and West Ham. Both teams are backed to lose this game according to the model, but there is no new manager bounce factored in.

Therefore I am going to ‘cheat’ slightly and do some A/B testing. I will do one ten-fold accumulator as above, but at the same time I will also do one with the Arsenal and West Ham outcomes switched to signify a new man at the helm.

I have been guilty of saying that I need to factor this in and to be honest, I have forgotten to do this weekend. So a bad move on my part, but at least with a linear approach to the bets, I won’t necessarily miss out.

THE ODDS IN QUESTION

With the 10 picks above, the odds are 382/1 – which although sounds a great deal, it does indicate that the picks are in line with how the bookmakers see the games panning out and I’m not going against the grain as it were.

While with the new manager bounce, the odds are slightly shorter at 372/1, this is because Arsenal are favourites to win against Crystal Palace and even though West Ham are 3/1 outsiders to beat Sheff Utd, the Selhurst swing has shortened the overall odds.

Of course, we are just putting pocket money into this, ultimately I am more concerned about how many of the lines come back correct and how that plays into the overall success rate. An answer we will find out come Sunday evening, so until then.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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