Moving On Quickly
Moving On Quickly
If you read one of my previous articles, you will know that I have taken a data driven approach to my betting and of the many possible angles that are available, one of them is trying to get the better of the Both Teams To Score market in the English Premier League.
Working on a probability basis, I ranked the 10 matches that took place last week and then divided them into sub-sections. From here, it would be a case of back BTTS, too tight to call (steer clear), back no BTTS.
While it was a ranking list, that looked as follows:
SO HOW DID WE DO?
Put it this way, I’m glad that I was only paying for a percentage success rate, rather than financial gain and if it was for the latter, then the return would have been non-existent, That’s because of the seven matches that were recommended as BTTS, just two got over the line.
A big thanks to the Wolves and Manchester United games for getting me over the line,although I cannot even say that it restored a modicum of respectability. Just two out of seven or 28% success in percentage terms.
In addition to that, the game that I said bet against BTTS, was one that ended up doing the opposite and therefore, this cannot be construed as a very good day at the office. Which begs the question, do we put too much faith in data?
DATA VS INSTINCT
At no point, have I decided to back my gut here, this is a purely data driven set of of decisions. Which means is the data wrong or unreliable. In this instance, you would have to say no, although there is perhaps one more thing to factor in.
That being that the percentage of games that the home team has been a game that has ended with Both Teams To Score and it to the same percentage for the away and the divide that by 2, only factors in outcomes across the season.
What it did not do, was look at home BTTS % vs away BTTS which may have ended up being a truer reflection. Then again, hindsight is a wonderful thing and after the Christmas break, it may make sense to do an element of a/b testing.
I think with the BTTS model, it may need a little bit of fine-tuning (famous last words) and therefore I will park this particular concept over the Christmas holidays, if only because I have something else up my sleeve over the next few weeks and more of that will be revealed very shortly.
In summary and in this instance, I have been beaten but I have certainly not been defeated.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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