Going To Belarus

Going To Belarus

Going To Belarus

Now it will come as no surprise to anyone that this website has been rather dormant as of late and the reason for that is the cessation of all footballing activity, due to the Coronavirus – something which has hampered my pursuit of data driven excellence.

However, there is one Eastern European nation that has bucked the trend these past few weeks and that is the former Soviet republic of Belarus, which as it enters its 6th weekend of the season thankfully means I finally have some data (albeit limited to work with)

Now if you remember how this website and project started, it was based on the Russian Premier League and using form as an indicator of upcoming performance and with my knowledge of that competition not being as extensive, it was a real test of modelling versus gut instinct.

Which means when we look at their Belarusian cousins, we are staring into the deep into the betting abyss and this will be a truer test of whether a model can predict the correct outcomes, because believe you me apart from BATE Borisov, I know absolutely sod all.

However, week six is always a good week in which to finally get things underway (I usually operate on week seven but to say I’m eager to write some content is a rather large understatement) and that means it is time for another form inofgraph

BELARUS IS BEST

Going To Belarus

As before it’s the form of the home team (last five matches, which in this case) is all the games that they’ve played and the exact same for the away. The orange colours represent the joint league leaders in the case, the light blue the team at the bottom.

While the green repersents who has picked up the most points out of this weekend’s respective pairing, in addition to that I have come across this really helpful preview guide to the upcoming matches.

EARLY VOLATILITY

Now one thing to take into consideration this week and probably for the next couple, is that the table hasn’t necessarily levelled out and the fact that a team like BATE Borisov find themselves lying in 8th is something of a misnomer and especially as they are just three points off the top.

Thankfully, we’re not going to use league position as one of our indicators this weekend and also because my trusted form index is built on a team’s last six matches either, it means we are going to have use odds to help us.

Odds that look like this:

Smolevichy vs Dinamo Minsk 4.40 3.00 1.91
Neman Grodno vs Energetik-BGU 2.40 3.00 3.10
Slavia Mozyr vs FC Minsk 2.00 3.10 3.60
FK Gorodeya vs BATE Borisov 6.00 3.50 1.55
Dynamo Brest vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk 2.25 3.10 3.00
FK Slutsk vs Belshina Bobruisk 1.73 3.40 4.50
Torpedo Zhodino vs Rukh Brest 1.91 2.88 4.20
Isloch vs FK Vitebsk 2.05 2.90 3.60

Which means if I was going to pick a treble for the weekend it would be:

BATE Borisov
FK Slutsk
Torpedo Zhodino at odds of 6.3

The reason being that although BATE have had an indifferent start to the season, they are something of a powerhouse and I’m hoping a win kickstarts their season, while for the other two they seem relatively good value at home on Sunday.

That’s the games I’d be confident in putting a wager on and I will count this one as an active test. However just as a control measure to compare against next week, I will also offer up a blind pick of all matches, so in order – I’ll go for:

Dinamo Minsk
Draw
Slavia Mozyr
BATE Borisov
Dynamo Brest
FK Slutsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Draw

And just for a bit of fun, I’ll do eight single line bets and one eight-fold acca, just to see how successful a blind pick can be and on the other side of the weekend, I’ll review all the results. Will it be Belarus or bust?

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

Follow me on Facebook at Dan The Stat Man
You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *