Everyone Loves Goals
Everyone Loves Goals
If you read my previous article regarding goal probability, you will know that I started off a side project and it is one where hopefully a data driven betting approach, will be one that allows both you and I the chance to get the better of the bookmakers.
In this project, the aim is to run parallel with my English Premier League model, otherwise known as ‘PremBot’ and therefore not look at who will each individual game but what will be the total amount of goals scored within them.
Although going forward the win and total goals combined market could also be one to look – basically fusing the two projects together, to then make some ‘SuperBets’ (great that’s more work I’ve now made for myself!)
Last week we got the project underway and out of the 10 matches, 6 of them were correct (it was 6 out of 8 by the end of Saturday but unfortunately the % success rate was not improved by the end of the gameweek), a return which means there is certainly something to work with.
Annoyingly the four-fold I predicted didn’t come in – to recap, here is what it looked like:
Manchester City vs Chelsea – Over 2.5 (YES)
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool – Over 2.5 (YES)
Sheffield United vs Manchester United – Under 2.5 (BUST)
Bournemouth vs Wolves – Under 2.5 (BUST)
Therefore this weekend, I am not going to worry about the tipping aspect and instead provide the information below as more of a probability tool – one that you can then compare and contrast against bookmaker odds.
What Do The Colours Mean?
As you can see after some reader feedback, I have added a traffic light system to the probability tool and although it is relatively self-explanatory I will run through it anyway:
Green – High Probability Of Over 2.5 Goals
Amber – Within 5% Margin Of Over/Under – Therefore Approach With Caution
Red – Low Probability Of Over 2.5 Goals – This Can Be Converted To Under 2.5 Bet
This means there are five recommended matches in which we would bet on overs and a single under bet. Which means if you are basing any accumulator on these picks, avoid the middle section as it is too close to call.
As the Amber section of matches are too close to call, I’m not going to consider these as matches to track success against, because we are not going to touch these. This means, I’m only interested in the return of the Green and Red fixtures.
Although on the basis of these picks, I would perhaps approach Southampton vs Watford with caution because the only reason their over 2.5 goals probability is high, is because of respectively conceding a boat load of goals rather them actually scoring themselves.
If we can get all six of these correct, then we know we are onto something (admittedly it is only week two of the project) and more importantly this logic can easily be converted to all other leagues with relative ease.
Should that prove to be the case, then I will have to work out a system that allows me to work on multiple leagues or it could even be a system that just highlights the best picks per week from across the continent.
Ultimately I shouldn’t get too far ahead of myself, as there is still a bit of fine tuning to be done and the only way to test this, is by the matches actually taking place. Which means all we can do now is sit back and watch the goals come in.
If you do place any acca’s on the basis of this, please do let me know – as it is great to have some reference points to work with and the more success people can get out of this, the further I can drive these projects forward.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.