European Data Dump

European Data Dump

European Data Dump

The pursuit for data driven betting excellence, takes something of a continental twist and although the attempt at Premier League modelling has got lost in the Christmas shuffle, that does not mean the numbers have not been crunched elsewhere.

Quite simply this week, it is nothign more than a European data dump, as I’ve analysed the Over/Under 2.5 goals market across the continent and hopefully this probability table, will allow you to make some data driven football predictions.

The likelihood of games ending Over 2.5 goals is ranked from top to bottom and of course, those matches at the bottom can also be looked at from the Under 2.5 vantage as well and without further ado, it is time to tuck into some stats:

League Home Away Over 2.5 Over 2.5 Prediction
Serie A Spezia Sampdoria 81.25% Over 2.5
Serie A Roma Inter 71.88% Over 2.5
Serie A Milan Torino 71.88% Over 2.5
Bundesliga M’gladbach Bayern Munich 71.43% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Schalke 04 Hoffenheim 67.86% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Paris SG Brest 63.89% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Monaco Angers 63.89% Over 2.5
Serie A Parma Lazio 62.50% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Montpellier Nantes 61.11% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Mainz Ein Frankfurt 60.71% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Lens Strasbourg 59.97% Over 2.5
Serie A Genoa Bologna 59.38% Over 2.5
Serie A Juventus Sassuolo 59.38% Over 2.5
Serie A Benevento Atalanta 58.54% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Rennes Lyon 58.33% Over 2.5
Serie A Udinese Napoli 54.58% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Freiburg FC Koln 53.57% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Bielefeld Hertha 53.57% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Augsburg Union Berlin 53.57% Over 2.5
Bundesliga RB Leipzig Dortmund 53.57% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Reims St Etienne 52.78% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Nimes Lille 50.00% Over 2.5
Ligue 1 Bordeaux Lorient 50.00% Over 2.5
Serie A Fiorentina Cagliari 50.00% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Leverkusen Werder Bremen 50.00% Over 2.5
Bundesliga Stuttgart Wolfsburg 50.00% Over 2.5
La Liga Granada Barcelona 48.16% Under 2.5
La Liga Valladolid Valencia 47.06% Under 2.5
Serie A Verona Crotone 46.88% Under 2.5
La Liga Celta Villarreal 41.18% Under 2.5
Ligue 1 Metz Nice 40.52% Under 2.5
La Liga Osasuna Real Madrid 39.34% Under 2.5
Ligue 1 Dijon Marseille 38.54% Under 2.5
La Liga Ath Madrid Ath Bilbao 36.11% Under 2.5
La Liga Huesca Betis 35.29% Under 2.5
La Liga Levante Eibar 33.46% Under 2.5
La Liga Elche Getafe 32.29% Under 2.5
La Liga Sevilla Sociedad 29.44% Under 2.5
La Liga Cadiz Alaves 29.41% Under 2.5

As a rule of thumb anything in the 45-55% bracker I would avoid, as it could go either way while those mathces at the extreme ends of the table should set you in good stead in terms of Over/Under bets for the weekend.

Happy punting and thanks for reading – to discuss this or any other projects you have, feel free to message me at either @dantracey1983 on Twitter or email me:


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