Down The Divisions
Down The Divisions
In my previous article, I skimmed what was not a particularly big list of English Premier League goal stats. However, in my pursuit of data driven betting excellence, there is always another list of numbers lurking in the background.
A list that is as follows and one that goes down the divisions, as I highlight which are the recommended Over/Under 2.5 goals bets in this weekend’s English Football League:
| League | Home | Away | Over 2.5 | Over 2.5 Prediction |
| Championship | Luton | Cardiff | 68.33% | Over 2.5 |
| Championship | Stoke | Charlton | 61.67% | Over 2.5 |
| League One | Peterboro | Oxford | 61.30% | Over 2.5 |
| Championship | Huddersfield | QPR | 60.00% | Over 2.5 |
| League One | AFC Wimbledon | Fleetwood Town | 59.99% | Over 2.5 |
| League One | Blackpool | Southend | 58.00% | Over 2.5 |
| League Two | Carlisle | Swindon | 57.31% | Over 2.5 |
| League Two | Colchester | Plymouth | 55.23% | Over 2.5 |
| League Two | Northampton | Port Vale | 44.25% | Under 2.5 |
| League Two | Leyton Orient | Macclesfield | 44.14% | Under 2.5 |
| League One | Coventry | Bolton | 43.38% | Under 2.5 |
| Championship | Millwall | West Brom | 43.33% | Under 2.5 |
| League Two | Bradford | Grimsby | 41.55% | Under 2.5 |
| League One | Burton | Gillingham | 41.07% | Under 2.5 |
| League One | Shrewsbury | Milton Keynes Dons | 40.68% | Under 2.5 |
| League One | Sunderland | Ipswich | 40.33% | Under 2.5 |
| League One | Wycombe | Bristol Rvs | 38.67% | Under 2.5 |
| Championship | Brentford | Middlesbrough | 38.33% | Under 2.5 |
| Championship | Nott’m Forest | Leeds | 38.33% | Under 2.5 |
| League Two | Exeter | Stevenage | 37.74% | Under 2.5 |
| League Two | Newport County | Cambridge | 36.69% | Under 2.5 |
If you are not aware of the probability percentage thresholds:
Anything over 55% – Over 2.5 goals
Anything under 45% – Under 2.5 goals
So the teams at the very top of the list have the best probability of finishing over 2.5, while the teams at the bottom are the inverse. Feel free to use this list as you wish, it’s just a quick dump to help your data driven football predictions.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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