Down The Divisions

Down The Divisions

Down The Divisions

In my previous article, I skimmed what was not a particularly big list of English Premier League goal stats. However, in my pursuit of data driven betting excellence, there is always another list of numbers lurking in the background.

A list that is as follows and one that goes down the divisions, as I highlight which are the recommended Over/Under 2.5 goals bets in this weekend’s English Football League:

League Home Away Over 2.5 Over 2.5 Prediction
Championship Luton Cardiff 68.33% Over 2.5
Championship Stoke Charlton 61.67% Over 2.5
League One Peterboro Oxford 61.30% Over 2.5
Championship Huddersfield QPR 60.00% Over 2.5
League One AFC Wimbledon Fleetwood Town 59.99% Over 2.5
League One Blackpool Southend 58.00% Over 2.5
League Two Carlisle Swindon 57.31% Over 2.5
League Two Colchester Plymouth 55.23% Over 2.5
League Two Northampton Port Vale 44.25% Under 2.5
League Two Leyton Orient Macclesfield 44.14% Under 2.5
League One Coventry Bolton 43.38% Under 2.5
Championship Millwall West Brom 43.33% Under 2.5
League Two Bradford Grimsby 41.55% Under 2.5
League One Burton Gillingham 41.07% Under 2.5
League One Shrewsbury Milton Keynes Dons 40.68% Under 2.5
League One Sunderland Ipswich 40.33% Under 2.5
League One Wycombe Bristol Rvs 38.67% Under 2.5
Championship Brentford Middlesbrough 38.33% Under 2.5
Championship Nott’m Forest Leeds 38.33% Under 2.5
League Two Exeter Stevenage 37.74% Under 2.5
League Two Newport County Cambridge 36.69% Under 2.5

If you are not aware of the probability percentage thresholds:

Anything over 55% – Over 2.5 goals

Anything under 45% – Under 2.5 goals

So the teams at the very top of the list have the best probability of finishing over 2.5, while the teams at the bottom are the inverse. Feel free to use this list as you wish, it’s just a quick dump to help your data driven football predictions.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

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